Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-12-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 782 397 32 0 0 0 0
OW 0 128 170 97 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 155 384 106 3 0 0
ODI 0 11 59 377 685 140 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 142 754 777 66 99
VCDI 0 0 0 7 389 2614 7448 16193
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 735 324 25 0 0 0 0
OW 0 115 117 50 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 214 134 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 47 300 164 46 3 0
CDI 0 0 3 153 466 452 56 33
VCDI 0 0 0 25 742 2891 6575 18358
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 912 459 84 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 125 149 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 59 246 51 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 119 187 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 40 261 384 82 18
VCDI 0 0 0 31 166 2984 6919 18776
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 661 509 66 1 0 0 0
OW 0 13 112 116 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 70 213 25 4 0 0
ODI 0 3 32 196 86 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 96 220 135 16 21
VCDI 0 0 0 20 221 2198 7396 19607
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 650 502 55 1 0 0 0
OW 0 27 115 125 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 74 214 23 2 0 0
ODI 0 7 28 172 104 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 118 195 150 7 23
VCDI 0 0 0 23 231 2187 7405 19605

Date: 2015-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 875 290 51 0 0 0 0
OW 0 101 91 53 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 67 142 110 20 4 0 0
ODI 0 34 59 171 33 22 0 0
CDI 0 3 33 220 148 80 33 21
VCDI 0 0 0 121 523 2642 7265 18854
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 832 263 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 130 93 67 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 62 161 118 19 2 0 0
ODI 0 34 42 144 35 12 0 0
CDI 0 21 36 194 137 64 28 22
VCDI 0 1 20 181 540 2670 7270 18853

Date: 2015-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1029 395 75 0 0 0 0
OW 0 96 90 134 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 85 265 36 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 180 119 44 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 85 186 138 66 2
VCDI 0 0 0 36 406 3277 7084 18195
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 792 255 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 116 58 49 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 113 101 115 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 80 53 127 28 22 2 0
CDI 0 35 47 146 97 79 53 4
VCDI 0 32 63 311 614 3359 7097 18193

Date: 2015-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 757 293 40 1 0 0 0
OW 0 61 119 122 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 48 159 75 6 0 0
ODI 0 25 40 99 123 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 36 132 147 233 55 11
VCDI 0 0 0 29 428 3020 8716 17204
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 652 256 31 0 0 0 0
OW 0 123 79 46 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 89 116 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 37 54 127 55 16 1 0
CDI 0 11 38 110 128 154 38 11
VCDI 0 0 20 151 579 3136 8732 17204

Date: 2015-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 504 240 71 11 0 0 0
OW 0 24 96 115 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 40 169 84 11 0 0
ODI 0 3 28 111 101 86 0 0
CDI 0 0 32 82 99 322 29 5
VCDI 0 0 0 46 331 2160 9872 17375
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 458 174 60 2 0 0 0
OW 0 64 124 84 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 80 141 41 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 22 107 89 16 1 0
CDI 0 0 36 74 92 119 69 7
VCDI 0 0 0 128 413 2444 9831 17373


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