Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-11-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 509 5832 1440 316 15 0 0 0
OW 51 720 461 342 119 0 0 0
VODI 0 344 331 417 129 24 0 0
ODI 0 8 122 410 150 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 52 275 252 138 31 11
VCDI 0 0 1 271 954 4645 7822 19625
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 414 5803 1154 180 7 0 0 0
OW 63 901 370 371 76 0 0 0
VODI 0 275 446 433 146 49 0 0
ODI 0 24 109 310 202 56 0 0
CDI 0 1 41 114 423 195 13 0
VCDI 0 0 5 79 878 4254 6800 21674
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 6311 2244 267 4 0 0 0
OW 0 219 421 412 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 183 389 181 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 43 106 262 86 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 33 441 272 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 66 702 3597 7326 22241
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 145 6392 1611 186 0 0 0 0
OW 0 393 602 484 81 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 164 345 219 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 32 120 275 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 117 499 230 2 1
VCDI 0 0 0 90 908 3715 8248 20955
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 145 6325 1700 256 14 0 0 0
OW 0 441 459 393 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 212 339 218 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 36 129 250 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 138 470 209 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 87 963 3732 8248 20956

Date: 2015-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48 5210 1527 65 26 3 0 0
OW 0 784 591 461 167 44 0 0
VODI 0 141 245 368 281 60 0 0
ODI 0 1 44 213 267 54 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 132 432 344 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 57 462 4775 8127 20929
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48 5517 1738 258 115 4 0 0
OW 0 360 342 295 163 58 0 0
VODI 0 245 290 351 202 51 0 0
ODI 0 14 39 197 256 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 117 355 295 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 78 544 4824 8128 20929

Date: 2015-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4280 1296 376 1 0 0 0
OW 0 607 558 477 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 261 859 238 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 164 728 180 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 396 726 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 77 243 3892 8291 22102
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4375 1330 543 22 27 0 0
OW 0 366 402 531 206 119 0 0
VODI 0 136 330 571 423 196 0 0
ODI 0 52 60 145 232 132 0 0
CDI 0 4 0 102 253 216 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 99 484 4112 8287 22102

Date: 2015-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2921 1134 132 30 0 0 0
OW 0 916 549 300 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 493 691 684 70 0 0 0
ODI 0 59 118 562 478 66 0 0
CDI 0 0 17 192 333 860 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 139 465 4654 7517 22457
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3590 1432 305 55 5 11 0
OW 0 273 433 420 181 107 8 0
VODI 0 390 460 596 247 429 2 0
ODI 0 103 128 302 205 187 0 0
CDI 0 33 30 216 216 299 1 0
VCDI 0 0 26 170 482 4553 7514 22457

Date: 2015-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1946 907 151 0 0 0 0
OW 0 791 418 295 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 586 627 568 50 0 0 0
ODI 0 103 328 745 341 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 92 293 544 545 9 0
VCDI 0 0 1 230 545 4425 8181 23077
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2536 1294 267 39 2 0 0
OW 0 434 359 492 121 19 19 0
VODI 0 256 329 654 344 364 83 0
ODI 0 181 232 410 313 477 25 0
CDI 0 13 119 243 216 427 65 5
VCDI 0 6 40 216 510 3686 7998 23072


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