Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-10-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 159 4401 721 71 0 0 0 0
OW 0 863 483 284 53 27 0 0
VODI 0 137 369 799 355 79 0 0
ODI 0 0 44 467 653 197 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 150 645 902 69 22
VCDI 0 0 0 0 301 3025 6042 10759
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4104 667 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 486 564 174 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 528 914 256 69 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 341 725 370 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 462 908 214 18
VCDI 0 0 0 1 116 1625 7157 12245
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 223 4436 787 233 8 0 0 0
OW 0 522 267 420 76 2 0 0
VODI 0 40 203 591 301 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 128 738 192 12 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 391 733 312 28
VCDI 0 0 0 0 53 1793 7561 12020
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3904 714 132 2 0 0 0
OW 0 225 393 438 95 0 0 0
VODI 0 335 260 637 231 13 0 0
ODI 0 3 51 251 539 130 49 1
CDI 0 0 0 13 452 818 143 30
VCDI 0 0 0 1 176 2548 7441 12057
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3649 618 96 2 0 0 0
OW 0 593 398 188 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 224 321 691 279 3 0 0
ODI 0 1 80 458 471 169 46 1
CDI 0 0 1 36 509 620 163 25
VCDI 0 0 0 3 194 2717 7424 12062

Date: 2015-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20 2724 768 394 9 0 0 0
OW 0 90 228 410 375 0 0 0
VODI 0 231 152 580 616 8 0 0
ODI 0 18 80 231 493 226 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 65 267 905 135 14
VCDI 0 0 0 2 121 2527 8628 11729
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20 2705 781 356 52 0 0 0
OW 0 184 196 328 161 2 0 0
VODI 0 144 164 691 590 31 0 0
ODI 0 30 87 254 609 193 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 48 334 883 142 3
VCDI 0 0 0 5 135 2557 8648 11740

Date: 2015-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 30 2601 668 195 11 0 0 0
OW 0 367 332 343 65 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 94 420 377 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 76 565 228 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 185 1360 204 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 1576 7114 15230
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 30 2675 669 234 138 0 0 0
OW 0 106 220 274 151 6 0 0
VODI 0 100 66 296 339 410 0 0
ODI 0 87 129 151 288 552 79 2
CDI 0 0 10 90 208 525 284 31
VCDI 0 0 0 0 95 1672 6961 15204

Date: 2015-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48 2546 660 181 4 0 0 0
OW 0 169 289 363 76 0 0 0
VODI 0 78 229 377 296 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 125 556 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 455 844 21 1
VCDI 0 0 0 10 222 1863 6659 15888
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48 2545 689 220 108 0 0 0
OW 0 126 225 231 155 14 0 0
VODI 0 38 86 296 286 160 0 0
ODI 0 71 99 156 410 449 0 0
CDI 0 13 92 151 248 481 42 60
VCDI 0 0 3 47 402 1664 6638 15829

Date: 2015-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2047 793 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 175 313 233 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 166 501 204 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 300 431 127 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 298 777 134 27
VCDI 0 0 0 11 128 2510 7223 15594
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2172 957 302 145 66 16 0
OW 0 64 198 157 103 70 36 0
VODI 0 0 118 256 149 201 129 0
ODI 0 0 10 133 189 493 234 0
CDI 0 0 0 162 209 609 222 20
VCDI 0 0 0 88 272 1981 6720 15601


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