Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-09-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3749 15150 1086 50 0 0 0 0
OW 0 362 347 144 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 237 308 64 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 78 291 206 33 23 0
CDI 0 0 25 205 538 574 535 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 483 3892 3571
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4166 14802 749 43 0 0 0 0
OW 0 682 369 116 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 133 296 276 50 0 1 0
ODI 0 26 91 293 206 32 15 0
CDI 0 1 35 215 591 600 424 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 69 494 3835 3464
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4970 14103 777 24 0 0 0 0
OW 0 856 380 207 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 195 433 68 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 22 235 271 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 65 430 703 213 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 288 4349 3380
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3858 14588 872 46 0 0 0 0
OW 0 832 471 230 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 100 257 524 94 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 267 287 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 367 495 461 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 169 4145 3889
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3858 14686 1014 81 0 0 0 0
OW 0 708 381 229 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 126 209 500 83 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 262 280 63 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 389 524 430 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 142 4173 3889

Date: 2015-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3907 14138 824 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1039 448 184 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 166 367 506 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 33 362 293 40 19 0
CDI 0 0 1 97 447 524 314 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 315 4052 3897
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3907 14327 918 29 0 0 0 0
OW 0 795 394 206 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 223 330 470 56 1 1 0
ODI 0 0 31 368 259 32 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 93 456 498 323 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 348 4046 3897

Date: 2015-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3468 15070 1025 31 0 0 0 0
OW 0 268 499 198 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 127 661 90 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 198 462 52 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 336 602 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 377 4311 4230
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3468 14074 876 34 1 0 0 0
OW 0 745 312 108 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 422 315 361 99 46 0 0
ODI 0 116 116 331 231 127 8 0
CDI 0 0 34 227 388 478 325 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 158 381 4025 4230

Date: 2015-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3094 14715 872 43 0 0 0 0
OW 0 303 502 290 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 152 639 192 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 166 502 136 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 215 739 235 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 334 4274 4591
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3094 14025 833 95 20 0 0 0
OW 0 670 289 92 56 7 0 0
VODI 0 315 266 407 93 149 5 0
ODI 0 34 127 331 231 156 72 0
CDI 0 1 24 227 383 400 426 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 135 503 4015 4591

Date: 2015-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2511 14491 989 47 3 0 0 0
OW 0 500 448 216 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 69 282 568 134 8 0 0
ODI 0 1 52 320 396 52 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 416 564 182 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 675 4380 4699
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2511 13991 1154 202 71 7 0 0
OW 0 701 163 175 107 48 1 0
VODI 0 337 256 278 101 132 74 0
ODI 0 28 170 306 165 162 94 0
CDI 0 4 28 213 393 399 417 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 139 551 3984 4699


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