Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2015-09-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2876 15215 1063 148 0 0 0 0
OW 0 293 441 136 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 272 310 14 3 9 0
ODI 0 3 67 290 166 19 12 0
CDI 0 0 19 241 574 662 268 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 79 337 4185 4337
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3939 14572 755 100 0 0 0 0
OW 0 427 371 75 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 91 270 288 18 8 12 0
ODI 0 14 116 302 150 13 18 0
CDI 0 3 39 345 666 668 313 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 126 495 3811 4064
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5344 13811 785 83 0 0 0 0
OW 0 207 377 165 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 86 419 48 1 1 0
ODI 0 0 32 234 225 30 11 0
CDI 0 0 4 142 570 698 212 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 359 4009 4179
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4807 14261 1004 86 0 0 0 0
OW 0 230 375 151 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 192 382 33 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 51 305 220 10 17 0
CDI 0 0 11 186 624 597 375 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 731 4244 3125
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4807 14272 1043 122 0 0 0 0
OW 0 227 340 118 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 186 377 24 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 55 291 181 7 12 0
CDI 0 0 9 202 676 601 346 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 730 4278 3125

Date: 2015-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4041 14894 891 45 0 0 0 0
OW 0 469 411 137 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 82 246 292 92 1 0 0
ODI 0 12 77 270 223 60 28 0
CDI 0 0 32 190 496 685 480 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 807 4480 2586
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4041 14942 1008 72 0 0 0 0
OW 0 428 300 131 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 77 256 284 76 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 63 258 209 26 28 0
CDI 0 0 30 189 540 741 501 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 786 4459 2586

Date: 2015-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4088 15088 778 35 0 0 0 0
OW 0 774 489 147 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 150 506 46 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 19 208 298 20 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 368 793 105 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 241 4594 3280
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4088 14989 755 74 0 0 0 0
OW 0 656 279 119 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 175 268 265 40 4 1 0
ODI 0 40 80 271 198 44 11 0
CDI 0 13 54 197 415 612 720 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 64 394 3968 3280

Date: 2015-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4546 14287 822 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 869 464 160 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 77 250 497 34 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 30 246 273 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 70 404 600 322 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 250 4282 3544
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4546 14319 758 63 0 0 0 0
OW 0 676 325 110 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 193 317 292 80 6 1 0
ODI 0 29 101 281 171 108 20 0
CDI 0 16 65 209 373 501 765 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 88 280 3818 3544

Date: 2015-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3810 14497 867 38 0 0 0 0
OW 0 832 440 248 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 75 333 554 64 1 3 0
ODI 0 0 23 300 318 41 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 57 439 570 357 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 258 4134 3766
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3810 14400 816 89 19 0 0 0
OW 0 753 317 143 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 210 391 412 108 15 0 0
ODI 0 34 82 308 218 100 57 0
CDI 0 7 50 199 373 374 761 0
VCDI 0 0 7 46 138 381 3690 3766


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