Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-07-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2989 10295 2258 1212 119 10 0 0
OW 12 35 357 1412 178 22 0 0
VODI 6 9 61 4045 1977 79 6 0
ODI 0 0 1 865 6117 212 23 0
CDI 0 18 18 185 1491 6383 1731 0
VCDI 0 12 21 133 463 2472 639 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3235 10420 2251 1154 109 1 0 0
OW 0 62 434 1513 238 37 0 0
VODI 0 0 31 4620 2116 114 12 0
ODI 0 0 7 859 4759 459 29 0
CDI 0 6 24 155 1074 6623 1213 0
VCDI 0 8 23 70 431 3531 248 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3220 10604 2470 1182 76 1 0 0
OW 0 3 238 1287 142 5 1 0
VODI 0 0 11 5451 1235 41 7 0
ODI 0 0 2 475 5507 258 13 0
CDI 0 5 17 160 1175 10097 1159 0
VCDI 0 5 17 46 310 254 392 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1881 11783 2564 1471 93 0 0 0
OW 0 0 181 1528 155 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 4897 2238 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 387 4318 761 0 0
CDI 0 0 15 170 1350 10114 1198 39
VCDI 0 0 27 116 237 75 235 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1881 11783 2564 1743 111 0 0 0
OW 0 0 180 1270 132 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 4720 2457 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 557 4116 813 0 0
CDI 0 0 14 153 1334 10057 1092 38
VCDI 0 0 26 126 241 80 341 1

Date: 2015-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3294 11238 2460 1367 83 4 0 0
OW 0 0 278 1388 151 17 2 0
VODI 0 0 62 5123 2041 85 13 0
ODI 0 0 0 426 3863 835 80 0
CDI 0 0 3 230 2365 7706 2202 0
VCDI 0 0 3 67 373 45 62 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3294 11237 2463 1560 79 4 0 0
OW 0 1 288 1366 148 13 1 0
VODI 0 0 49 4757 2098 107 10 0
ODI 0 0 1 623 3802 961 90 0
CDI 0 0 2 233 2397 7558 2151 0
VCDI 0 0 3 62 352 49 107 0

Date: 2015-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4226 10678 2522 1141 69 4 0 0
OW 0 3 490 1104 65 16 0 0
VODI 0 0 44 5420 878 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 733 6227 179 0 0
CDI 0 0 42 261 1193 6925 183 0
VCDI 0 0 11 50 49 364 2527 428
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4226 10670 2519 1454 99 7 0 0
OW 0 11 379 1570 212 24 0 0
VODI 0 0 147 4360 2452 64 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 862 3500 1060 13 0
CDI 0 0 48 345 2145 6304 2693 298
VCDI 0 0 17 118 73 46 4 130

Date: 2015-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2851 12292 2551 1144 67 23 0 0
OW 0 2 533 1424 110 11 11 0
VODI 0 0 15 5319 1297 64 12 0
ODI 0 10 35 716 3900 1650 59 0
CDI 0 15 44 275 1143 5149 2000 0
VCDI 0 4 0 178 9 751 2004 198
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2851 12236 2484 1541 87 27 0 0
OW 0 56 395 1908 247 44 19 0
VODI 0 2 213 4231 2075 172 45 0
ODI 0 9 19 765 3129 1793 91 0
CDI 0 17 64 463 979 5598 3907 198
VCDI 0 3 3 148 9 14 24 0

Date: 2015-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2444 13178 2605 843 59 0 0 0
OW 0 58 676 1409 75 14 0 0
VODI 0 15 61 4679 1741 126 27 0
ODI 0 42 4 538 2913 1694 969 0
CDI 0 39 9 244 822 5016 2369 0
VCDI 0 5 4 164 3 615 2253 153
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2444 13165 2565 1170 76 1 0 0
OW 0 60 546 1975 322 59 24 0
VODI 0 25 229 3693 2170 253 97 0
ODI 0 16 6 548 2589 1870 723 0
CDI 0 71 13 359 451 5273 4688 153
VCDI 0 0 0 132 5 9 86 0


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