Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-07-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77590 28074 5030 2803 167 3 0 0
OW 0 150 746 3273 372 11 0 0
VODI 0 51 271 3762 3064 61 0 0
ODI 0 6 100 1219 8946 1487 0 0
CDI 0 13 124 590 8992 18756 1871 0
VCDI 0 3 69 171 1397 11341 6535 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79357 27290 5106 2903 198 2 0 0
OW 0 154 853 3683 672 22 0 0
VODI 0 52 297 3264 3243 150 3 0
ODI 0 6 120 1186 9030 1598 43 0
CDI 0 44 87 623 8721 14798 6001 0
VCDI 0 4 74 138 945 10952 5429 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79092 28567 6356 2835 150 0 0 0
OW 0 24 547 3768 213 4 0 0
VODI 0 8 91 4587 2332 49 0 0
ODI 0 55 65 1081 15477 1035 63 0
CDI 0 0 27 252 3893 19922 1353 0
VCDI 0 0 7 71 255 5569 7036 2264
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75641 33311 6554 2734 171 0 0 0
OW 0 100 1172 3348 358 3 0 0
VODI 0 26 240 4707 2943 67 0 0
ODI 0 27 75 1823 13456 1608 346 0
CDI 0 0 30 375 4616 17215 2982 36
VCDI 0 0 21 104 459 5677 6430 393
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75641 33318 6762 3263 180 0 0 0
OW 0 91 953 2922 513 5 0 0
VODI 0 29 248 4564 2965 116 0 0
ODI 0 26 69 1864 12949 1648 349 0
CDI 0 0 38 382 4932 17079 2976 30
VCDI 0 0 22 96 464 5722 6433 399

Date: 2015-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78733 30820 7040 3036 210 7 0 0
OW 0 201 1344 3356 423 19 0 0
VODI 0 32 428 4842 3653 189 269 0
ODI 0 57 76 2107 11515 1878 1042 0
CDI 0 18 22 405 4309 14993 4716 0
VCDI 0 14 7 83 673 7980 2401 150
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78733 30878 7232 3611 229 6 0 0
OW 0 142 1164 2873 445 28 0 0
VODI 0 31 408 4887 3674 238 290 0
ODI 0 45 90 1986 11148 1955 852 0
CDI 0 32 14 397 4673 14483 4796 0
VCDI 0 14 9 75 614 8356 2490 150

Date: 2015-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81228 32399 5860 2507 162 17 0 0
OW 1 36 1213 2788 190 8 0 0
VODI 0 39 85 6718 2005 25 0 0
ODI 0 40 33 1036 14620 638 3 0
CDI 0 2 27 92 2187 27006 647 0
VCDI 0 4 12 95 533 1970 2822 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81228 31970 5215 3431 247 18 0 0
OW 0 347 1226 2744 438 31 1 0
VODI 1 96 544 4934 4230 784 81 0
ODI 0 84 188 1678 10103 3740 74 0
CDI 0 16 41 363 3934 17133 1611 0
VCDI 0 7 16 86 745 7958 1705 0

Date: 2015-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81528 33952 6165 2501 201 44 0 0
OW 0 102 1030 2778 300 27 0 0
VODI 0 71 222 7118 2537 84 0 0
ODI 0 6 6 1196 11909 1448 4 0
CDI 0 2 12 124 1643 24709 2215 0
VCDI 0 1 27 100 530 3682 774 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81528 33238 5246 3250 300 56 0 0
OW 0 604 1165 2501 549 76 0 0
VODI 0 176 705 5698 3839 1105 115 0
ODI 0 98 294 1913 8725 4686 66 0
CDI 0 17 23 336 3006 16358 1704 0
VCDI 0 1 29 119 701 7713 1108 0

Date: 2015-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81878 35656 5272 2528 197 10 0 0
OW 12 230 1296 3058 274 22 0 0
VODI 6 85 256 7230 3260 97 6 0
ODI 0 2 1 1457 10297 2064 23 0
CDI 0 18 18 214 2711 20103 3256 0
VCDI 0 12 21 133 501 4164 680 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81873 34507 4757 3570 316 18 0 0
OW 13 849 1177 2727 596 212 33 0
VODI 10 461 527 5633 3860 1570 52 0
ODI 0 133 299 2047 8106 4336 76 0
CDI 0 35 71 470 3802 14328 1963 0
VCDI 0 18 33 173 560 5996 1841 0


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