Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-05-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66960 18465 2528 1297 277 47 0 0
OW 52 26 180 475 155 40 1 0
VODI 0 7 28 477 371 127 13 0
ODI 0 0 5 173 604 244 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 470 1398 812 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 208 2995 5287 5306
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67953 17905 1947 1521 309 26 0 0
OW 55 25 142 485 168 37 0 0
VODI 0 6 27 443 465 154 6 0
ODI 0 0 7 156 577 249 62 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 424 1658 705 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 162 2710 6103 4560
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67496 18564 2054 1395 261 10 0 0
OW 50 5 120 496 169 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 460 470 52 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 105 719 188 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 452 2554 504 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 124 1391 6419 4977
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64856 20988 2415 1382 212 9 0 0
OW 52 9 184 442 204 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 49 446 524 83 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 178 615 216 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 594 2151 661 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 144 1845 7956 2792
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64856 20981 2444 1460 236 12 0 0
OW 52 16 156 383 202 13 0 0
VODI 0 0 47 418 554 96 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 181 567 215 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 592 2100 677 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 142 1878 7927 2792

Date: 2015-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67240 18990 2139 1412 119 0 0 0
OW 51 57 205 458 199 13 0 0
VODI 0 1 98 449 543 57 18 0
ODI 0 0 8 198 500 232 78 0
CDI 0 0 0 112 878 1790 1107 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 158 1809 8558 1592
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67240 19016 2144 1505 139 2 0 0
OW 51 32 217 376 232 15 0 0
VODI 0 0 86 446 530 66 23 0
ODI 0 0 3 211 467 249 79 0
CDI 0 0 0 83 861 1804 1212 0
VCDI 0 0 0 39 168 1765 8447 1592

Date: 2015-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68216 18238 2183 1199 124 1 0 0
OW 49 3 218 513 141 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 671 505 15 3 0
ODI 0 0 21 185 829 142 20 0
CDI 0 0 1 72 682 2383 438 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 72 1555 8766 1845
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68216 18222 2091 1323 251 10 1 0
OW 49 19 258 417 329 18 9 0
VODI 0 0 51 481 427 131 52 0
ODI 0 0 6 263 414 219 159 0
CDI 0 0 23 127 732 1910 1813 2
VCDI 0 0 1 29 200 1811 7193 1843

Date: 2015-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69150 17546 2046 1295 107 3 0 0
OW 50 0 180 584 171 24 0 0
VODI 0 0 36 600 479 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 27 215 706 219 9 0
CDI 0 0 6 104 817 2159 976 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 81 2797 7432 1235
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69150 17499 1834 1521 269 30 0 0
OW 50 47 265 390 296 43 0 0
VODI 0 0 132 389 386 159 59 0
ODI 0 0 15 287 419 264 218 0
CDI 0 0 49 166 823 1933 2026 0
VCDI 0 0 0 45 168 2819 6114 1235

Date: 2015-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69512 17291 2115 1233 102 14 0 0
OW 44 6 221 715 251 13 0 0
VODI 0 7 74 554 401 26 0 0
ODI 0 5 22 269 757 168 3 0
CDI 0 0 24 115 895 2144 958 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 95 1820 8411 814
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69512 17222 2026 1625 320 27 0 0
OW 44 67 179 456 296 24 0 0
VODI 0 7 111 385 442 185 15 0
ODI 0 1 40 214 539 396 185 0
CDI 0 12 94 152 706 1783 1507 0
VCDI 0 0 6 75 198 1770 7665 814


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