Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-05-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66960 19396 3024 1693 326 47 0 0
OW 52 146 515 891 222 40 1 0
VODI 0 81 370 998 630 138 13 0
ODI 0 44 215 695 1003 467 53 0
CDI 0 2 110 872 1934 3029 1650 0
VCDI 0 0 11 264 1654 11218 35112 33172
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67953 19041 2474 1940 364 26 0 0
OW 55 285 450 884 226 37 0 0
VODI 0 211 370 962 740 162 6 0
ODI 0 108 288 670 1088 411 68 0
CDI 0 18 205 945 1930 3476 1075 5
VCDI 0 0 11 358 1318 11255 33698 33935
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67496 20452 3173 2088 319 10 0 0
OW 50 101 489 1192 224 9 0 0
VODI 0 12 279 1298 843 65 0 0
ODI 0 0 38 721 1624 446 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 321 1807 5977 989 0
VCDI 0 0 0 263 728 8433 34648 32938
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64856 23263 3557 2191 238 9 0 0
OW 52 158 646 977 306 10 0 0
VODI 0 35 323 1190 882 177 3 0
ODI 0 4 63 802 1331 608 38 0
CDI 0 0 3 477 1877 5197 1637 0
VCDI 0 0 0 221 723 8774 37998 28422
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64856 23280 3687 2348 288 12 0 0
OW 52 148 553 873 295 14 0 0
VODI 0 28 292 1152 932 178 3 0
ODI 0 4 58 779 1225 594 54 0
CDI 0 0 2 480 1899 5212 1543 0
VCDI 0 0 0 226 718 8765 38076 28422

Date: 2015-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67240 21490 3381 2225 153 0 0 0
OW 51 223 678 1031 274 13 0 0
VODI 0 50 391 1217 1000 95 21 0
ODI 0 11 76 828 1307 491 106 0
CDI 0 0 14 592 2161 5132 1989 0
VCDI 0 0 8 318 757 9490 36195 28040
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67240 21570 3518 2428 190 2 0 0
OW 51 149 606 881 334 15 0 0
VODI 0 46 331 1208 953 114 24 0
ODI 0 9 74 793 1215 539 105 0
CDI 0 0 12 567 2201 5068 2092 0
VCDI 0 0 7 334 759 9483 36090 28040

Date: 2015-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68216 21240 3743 1970 177 1 0 0
OW 49 61 747 1241 211 3 0 0
VODI 0 2 110 1774 880 37 8 0
ODI 0 0 29 674 2009 353 39 1
CDI 0 0 13 515 1841 4929 867 11
VCDI 0 0 0 101 362 5363 44496 24975
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68216 21102 3549 2189 323 10 1 0
OW 49 129 653 956 476 18 9 0
VODI 0 47 295 1196 922 241 71 2
ODI 0 25 68 831 1061 557 275 10
CDI 0 0 60 740 2019 3953 4125 16
VCDI 0 0 17 363 679 5907 40929 24959

Date: 2015-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69150 20981 3930 2075 137 3 0 0
OW 50 98 476 1412 256 24 0 0
VODI 0 39 130 1543 913 89 15 0
ODI 0 7 66 592 1838 472 55 0
CDI 0 0 39 661 2185 4374 1821 8
VCDI 0 0 0 131 792 9762 38402 24522
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69150 20758 3367 2314 330 30 0 0
OW 50 249 630 933 474 47 0 0
VODI 0 60 410 1162 937 245 80 0
ODI 0 31 109 829 1040 634 321 0
CDI 0 27 92 845 2356 3980 4735 23
VCDI 0 0 33 331 984 9788 35157 24507

Date: 2015-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69512 21013 3994 2280 132 14 0 0
OW 44 95 534 1515 384 30 3 0
VODI 0 38 202 1446 949 51 55 0
ODI 0 14 76 775 1728 304 101 0
CDI 0 0 83 757 2573 4279 2276 0
VCDI 0 0 0 172 638 7731 37378 25872
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69512 20597 3652 2629 382 27 0 0
OW 44 268 504 1020 500 25 2 0
VODI 0 154 323 1221 981 246 35 0
ODI 0 67 149 732 1144 687 306 0
CDI 0 70 214 988 2380 4638 3904 21
VCDI 0 4 47 355 1017 6786 35566 25851


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