Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2015-05-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 17 102 7 9 0 0 0
OW 0 43 27 58 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 109 226 48 2 0 0
ODI 0 10 111 303 160 24 0 0
CDI 0 1 177 527 795 436 124 0
VCDI 0 0 51 298 1221 5305 18572 17066
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 2 28 4 0 0 0
OW 0 73 131 91 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 111 92 289 49 0 0 0
ODI 0 63 143 293 163 32 3 0
CDI 0 30 294 521 722 458 135 0
VCDI 0 5 96 449 1346 6095 19255 14889
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 281 344 194 1 0 0 0
OW 0 49 255 279 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 253 324 82 5 0 0
ODI 0 7 234 436 177 38 3 0
CDI 0 1 63 589 908 929 162 0
VCDI 0 0 7 300 922 6151 22781 10027
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 371 460 245 12 0 0 0
OW 0 68 228 282 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 45 276 352 79 0 0 0
ODI 0 29 134 480 226 64 6 0
CDI 0 0 76 634 1089 880 218 0
VCDI 0 0 11 299 1008 6245 19383 12634
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 392 522 288 19 0 0 0
OW 0 50 212 241 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 252 376 94 0 0 0
ODI 0 22 121 468 224 49 4 0
CDI 0 0 67 619 1036 817 257 0
VCDI 0 0 11 300 1036 6323 19346 12634

Date: 2015-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 513 413 289 30 0 0 0
OW 0 154 186 266 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 116 259 366 115 3 0 0
ODI 0 53 189 379 291 70 0 0
CDI 0 7 110 612 1041 1186 248 0
VCDI 0 0 7 359 773 5707 17256 14817
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 558 453 320 33 0 0 0
OW 0 129 186 252 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 107 258 358 128 0 0 0
ODI 0 49 171 376 283 73 1 0
CDI 0 0 89 622 1014 1158 249 0
VCDI 0 0 7 343 786 5735 17254 14817

Date: 2015-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 970 650 357 66 0 0 0
OW 0 140 373 469 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 190 622 169 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 36 448 481 94 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 245 935 2530 141 0
VCDI 0 0 0 144 436 5275 15793 15256
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 636 412 313 76 0 0 0
OW 0 223 262 288 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 166 221 376 156 5 0 0
ODI 0 74 184 347 231 192 3 0
CDI 0 16 156 647 865 1185 368 8
VCDI 0 0 14 314 742 6524 15563 15248

Date: 2015-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1350 770 622 9 0 0 0
OW 0 91 306 419 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 181 433 183 26 0 0
ODI 0 1 43 413 431 189 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 239 952 2479 219 0
VCDI 0 0 0 156 416 4883 18798 12204
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 844 406 490 27 0 0 0
OW 0 234 249 256 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 211 249 296 156 45 0 0
ODI 0 116 188 343 238 216 31 0
CDI 0 59 204 582 913 1351 477 0
VCDI 0 0 4 315 646 5965 18512 12204

Date: 2015-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1519 918 651 14 0 0 0
OW 0 100 301 346 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 165 450 211 34 0 0
ODI 0 10 50 415 466 219 10 0
CDI 0 0 2 351 926 1766 385 0
VCDI 0 0 0 154 368 6593 16605 12744
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 992 566 608 57 0 0 0
OW 0 261 266 167 70 11 0 0
VODI 0 194 258 300 192 87 10 0
ODI 0 138 174 448 282 243 46 0
CDI 0 88 166 535 852 1291 628 0
VCDI 0 0 6 309 581 6980 16316 12744


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