Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2015-04-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63010 17457 2359 1639 608 330 11 0
OW 62 293 404 630 402 150 16 0
VODI 0 202 223 523 1060 287 32 0
ODI 0 67 107 321 430 405 81 0
CDI 0 33 89 237 418 538 162 0
VCDI 0 0 3 100 667 4520 6427 4797
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62438 18534 2532 1512 386 313 62 0
OW 61 242 357 823 510 164 26 0
VODI 0 131 165 439 591 247 30 0
ODI 0 45 95 283 255 484 37 0
CDI 0 70 54 253 433 685 89 0
VCDI 0 3 49 148 656 4225 7094 4579
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64349 17614 2498 1536 343 284 0 0
OW 60 52 220 923 319 112 0 0
VODI 0 48 81 406 551 170 0 0
ODI 0 7 71 190 533 451 3 0
CDI 0 0 13 142 582 1763 114 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 260 3320 7317 4767
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63620 18340 2484 1927 415 292 0 0
OW 60 62 180 473 342 147 0 0
VODI 0 40 57 378 590 250 0 0
ODI 0 3 52 169 384 518 9 0
CDI 0 0 26 129 523 1391 256 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 218 2268 8359 5137
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63620 18341 2488 2015 438 283 0 0
OW 60 60 180 418 303 148 0 0
VODI 0 33 54 373 570 247 1 0
ODI 0 11 48 147 435 537 29 0
CDI 0 0 29 123 498 1357 276 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 228 2294 8318 5137

Date: 2015-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63473 18503 2652 1786 338 179 79 0
OW 60 80 234 532 345 149 17 0
VODI 0 59 72 399 532 251 10 0
ODI 0 20 35 162 372 416 22 0
CDI 0 3 48 136 501 1186 175 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 262 1945 8572 5495
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63473 18498 2674 1818 385 189 81 0
OW 60 71 227 493 257 150 15 0
VODI 0 64 60 421 529 236 14 0
ODI 0 19 33 160 407 390 40 0
CDI 0 13 47 119 506 1189 200 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 266 1972 8525 5495

Date: 2015-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64117 18388 2733 1654 286 163 0 0
OW 60 25 168 815 302 76 0 0
VODI 0 0 26 522 557 128 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 165 575 295 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 539 1447 92 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 110 1919 8280 5591
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64117 18307 2583 1820 425 257 0 0
OW 60 79 194 564 265 138 0 0
VODI 0 23 86 375 536 183 0 0
ODI 0 4 54 243 349 344 9 0
CDI 0 0 11 212 517 968 225 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 277 2138 8138 5591

Date: 2015-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65272 17829 2723 1670 291 228 0 0
OW 60 47 134 680 262 97 0 0
VODI 0 3 58 373 431 169 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 181 444 260 0 0
CDI 0 0 9 108 715 1118 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 165 3266 7321 5107
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65272 17740 2502 1592 386 397 0 0
OW 60 81 222 482 229 105 0 0
VODI 0 42 114 391 303 171 0 0
ODI 0 16 63 240 397 255 8 0
CDI 0 0 43 276 598 996 212 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 395 3214 7160 5107

Date: 2015-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65975 18111 2200 1541 353 185 66 0
OW 60 55 213 420 278 68 57 0
VODI 0 26 63 385 308 114 70 0
ODI 0 2 42 251 363 209 64 0
CDI 0 0 23 107 560 656 225 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 323 3130 7574 5003
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65975 17811 2078 1520 435 252 140 0
OW 60 150 155 349 192 40 66 0
VODI 0 132 82 298 276 102 76 0
ODI 0 80 70 211 312 232 61 0
CDI 0 21 153 228 526 708 398 0
VCDI 0 0 3 118 444 3028 7315 5003


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