Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-03-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58674 21482 2727 1001 312 226 0 0
OW 52 173 549 622 282 87 0 0
VODI 0 74 204 714 463 164 0 0
ODI 0 18 90 415 556 189 22 0
CDI 0 2 78 269 708 696 219 69
VCDI 0 0 19 217 1303 11101 36240 47031
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58565 20618 2478 1581 434 312 0 0
OW 52 141 313 597 398 143 3 0
VODI 0 75 183 597 615 246 8 0
ODI 0 28 69 305 464 476 51 0
CDI 0 7 64 239 544 1266 252 35
VCDI 0 0 18 271 1166 11281 33922 49231
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58872 20781 2428 1210 277 225 1 0
OW 52 99 297 709 239 92 0 0
VODI 0 71 104 769 619 176 0 0
ODI 0 24 58 278 764 410 0 0
CDI 0 0 26 246 729 1486 174 94
VCDI 0 0 0 157 1388 10876 36250 47067
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57893 19990 3248 1728 516 225 16 0
OW 53 124 239 574 404 104 33 0
VODI 0 50 160 463 673 262 34 0
ODI 0 0 71 296 676 567 38 17
CDI 0 0 38 206 700 1439 396 64
VCDI 0 0 0 182 1232 9203 35798 49336
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57893 20003 3290 1798 556 211 7 0
OW 53 115 221 543 356 106 35 0
VODI 0 46 138 433 660 249 42 0
ODI 0 0 69 282 630 562 42 24
CDI 0 0 38 200 781 1498 305 70
VCDI 0 0 0 193 1218 9174 35884 49323

Date: 2015-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59054 19808 2378 1588 480 252 0 0
OW 52 171 347 478 375 187 0 0
VODI 0 78 224 427 641 336 2 0
ODI 0 36 128 337 531 628 24 0
CDI 0 4 107 203 735 1478 305 38
VCDI 0 0 87 350 1136 9302 35572 49169
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59054 19842 2431 1668 540 241 0 0
OW 52 124 312 440 340 186 0 0
VODI 0 92 211 415 599 309 3 0
ODI 0 32 122 312 549 607 28 0
CDI 0 7 97 180 792 1651 291 67
VCDI 0 0 98 368 1078 9189 35581 49140

Date: 2015-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56628 22586 2525 1304 434 212 0 0
OW 52 118 466 779 268 134 0 0
VODI 0 10 180 658 725 179 0 0
ODI 0 0 87 296 931 510 9 0
CDI 0 0 47 262 586 1940 272 6
VCDI 0 0 2 179 941 8365 35397 49960
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56628 22338 2374 1543 652 294 0 0
OW 52 172 317 430 345 177 0 0
VODI 0 126 241 482 574 266 1 0
ODI 0 38 125 346 585 552 29 0
CDI 0 32 100 241 567 1454 299 5
VCDI 0 8 150 436 1162 8597 35349 49961

Date: 2015-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60622 19126 2251 1343 385 239 33 0
OW 52 192 309 710 290 106 51 0
VODI 0 92 157 614 716 184 41 0
ODI 0 67 80 281 884 490 69 0
CDI 0 67 60 225 615 1410 173 10
VCDI 0 58 118 313 1030 8021 36384 49180
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60622 18852 2029 1483 546 338 68 0
OW 52 243 296 415 364 136 54 0
VODI 0 166 283 509 575 216 54 0
ODI 0 75 116 368 607 429 83 0
CDI 0 69 67 286 727 1300 361 8
VCDI 0 197 184 425 1101 8031 36131 49182

Date: 2015-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61982 18100 2327 1197 283 375 0 0
OW 52 146 331 815 331 144 0 0
VODI 0 86 138 661 980 235 6 0
ODI 0 58 60 305 700 549 23 0
CDI 0 64 69 192 527 1222 171 18
VCDI 0 22 92 305 1090 9586 36594 47212
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61982 17761 2123 1410 557 483 0 0
OW 52 243 302 515 322 124 0 0
VODI 0 183 267 518 655 230 1 0
ODI 0 65 105 371 660 525 29 0
CDI 0 75 45 270 621 1364 295 13
VCDI 0 149 175 391 1096 9385 36469 47217


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