Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-02-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-02-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54306 24238 3227 867 266 36 0 0
OW 54 379 272 565 259 57 0 0
VODI 0 223 192 414 543 192 12 0
ODI 0 87 115 192 369 362 23 0
CDI 0 79 97 178 359 889 143 23
VCDI 0 195 179 735 1637 11059 40161 44064
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55520 23136 2818 1018 306 24 0 0
OW 54 232 401 443 299 62 0 0
VODI 0 70 279 409 465 215 2 0
ODI 0 40 106 299 375 379 23 0
CDI 0 32 97 225 529 876 147 5
VCDI 0 14 178 546 1582 9920 39204 46718
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54482 23626 3412 1058 200 17 0 0
OW 54 342 343 477 182 45 0 0
VODI 0 135 204 475 462 112 0 0
ODI 0 31 114 319 522 475 0 0
CDI 0 36 155 221 493 1247 123 22
VCDI 0 0 92 369 1480 9534 40516 45673
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55422 22516 3332 1129 223 45 0 0
OW 54 404 230 476 197 68 0 0
VODI 0 227 188 375 506 154 0 0
ODI 0 67 136 235 495 346 1 0
CDI 0 82 123 211 647 1269 126 4
VCDI 0 51 180 575 1360 8058 37174 50362
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55422 22485 3327 1156 242 62 0 0
OW 54 437 236 460 217 66 0 0
VODI 0 214 184 382 461 169 0 0
ODI 0 75 133 205 454 280 2 0
CDI 0 73 125 212 666 1260 121 3
VCDI 0 63 184 586 1388 8103 37178 50363

Date: 2015-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55257 23522 2825 1041 227 55 0 0
OW 54 381 292 414 244 64 0 0
VODI 0 161 197 407 424 145 2 0
ODI 0 76 99 300 450 304 13 0
CDI 0 73 69 266 757 883 213 32
VCDI 0 63 190 398 1275 7174 35383 53318
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55257 23470 2790 1085 264 78 0 0
OW 54 401 315 374 243 70 0 0
VODI 0 160 201 401 419 156 7 0
ODI 0 83 102 288 387 276 10 0
CDI 0 71 72 252 740 847 170 38
VCDI 0 91 192 426 1324 7198 35424 53312

Date: 2015-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59097 20023 2508 1186 208 131 0 0
OW 53 372 359 547 274 87 0 0
VODI 0 164 197 517 522 139 4 0
ODI 0 49 76 250 614 337 25 0
CDI 0 22 161 285 691 1531 236 9
VCDI 0 0 24 258 1051 7517 36850 50674
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59096 19579 2325 1273 305 195 0 0
OW 54 457 216 351 310 99 4 0
VODI 0 228 251 336 382 196 18 0
ODI 0 165 144 239 348 330 48 0
CDI 0 94 88 282 652 961 228 4
VCDI 0 107 301 562 1363 7961 36817 50679

Date: 2015-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60374 19548 2387 950 302 74 0 0
OW 53 436 330 530 266 68 0 0
VODI 0 264 137 570 440 136 0 0
ODI 0 99 41 317 428 285 0 0
CDI 0 80 79 188 543 1082 63 0
VCDI 0 9 146 413 1409 9527 36441 49033
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60348 19099 2183 1010 355 146 0 0
OW 79 391 253 358 277 108 0 0
VODI 0 332 226 395 391 208 0 0
ODI 0 198 99 336 301 365 1 0
CDI 0 205 58 285 499 878 180 14
VCDI 0 211 301 584 1565 9467 36323 49019

Date: 2015-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59272 20854 2272 894 208 129 0 0
OW 53 566 473 533 265 56 0 0
VODI 0 240 260 487 409 135 0 0
ODI 0 89 85 301 453 265 11 0
CDI 0 68 94 222 601 889 117 5
VCDI 0 22 191 494 1401 9253 35715 49666
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59245 20292 2120 1113 343 245 0 0
OW 80 482 267 258 273 92 3 0
VODI 0 428 296 281 394 182 11 0
ODI 0 254 189 309 345 401 16 0
CDI 0 193 153 294 460 1116 139 25
VCDI 0 190 350 676 1522 8691 35674 49646


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