Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2015-01-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2015-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59209 23900 2722 777 119 147 4 0
OW 67 297 329 398 73 47 0 0
VODI 0 205 242 518 280 76 0 0
ODI 0 76 200 264 484 100 0 0
CDI 0 40 159 238 770 451 36 8
VCDI 0 32 165 689 1735 13650 34573 43968
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61232 20618 3687 565 101 143 0 0
OW 51 264 507 370 27 22 0 0
VODI 0 121 377 609 139 38 0 0
ODI 0 51 189 593 327 113 0 0
CDI 0 50 125 402 733 461 18 10
VCDI 0 70 176 807 2249 12617 32012 47174
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60540 22540 3022 945 130 91 0 0
OW 65 151 324 531 46 18 0 0
VODI 0 82 194 607 238 14 0 0
ODI 0 66 126 428 450 39 0 0
CDI 0 1 87 439 848 441 64 19
VCDI 0 0 0 147 1891 11248 40557 40659
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2015-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59086 23936 2718 749 145 96 2 0
OW 51 240 461 599 52 19 0 0
VODI 0 104 251 555 236 14 8 0
ODI 0 48 124 392 445 50 3 0
CDI 0 17 136 314 930 428 25 0
VCDI 0 0 40 359 1850 11718 42505 38342
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59086 23922 2736 805 146 103 2 0
OW 51 235 415 568 44 13 0 0
VODI 0 108 276 527 220 11 6 0
ODI 0 47 119 382 435 45 5 0
CDI 0 33 112 315 927 437 22 0
VCDI 0 0 72 371 1886 11716 42508 38342

Date: 2015-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59696 22686 2858 822 155 91 17 0
OW 52 383 515 538 34 15 9 0
VODI 0 136 287 681 229 10 9 0
ODI 0 52 123 430 388 57 11 0
CDI 0 40 108 300 822 513 87 34
VCDI 0 6 131 351 1548 11756 40916 40152
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59696 22613 2936 907 159 97 19 0
OW 52 427 435 474 29 11 6 0
VODI 0 134 273 615 218 7 8 0
ODI 0 58 122 475 389 53 9 0
CDI 0 51 105 279 840 458 54 27
VCDI 0 20 151 372 1541 11816 40953 40159

Date: 2015-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63727 18940 2415 984 132 93 29 0
OW 51 224 422 790 39 19 0 0
VODI 0 28 227 814 287 20 0 0
ODI 0 6 87 327 796 93 4 0
CDI 0 0 42 285 1065 627 32 12
VCDI 0 0 0 44 1130 10366 41773 41118
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63726 18682 2185 899 137 119 29 0
OW 52 257 411 601 60 15 0 0
VODI 0 132 220 644 224 20 2 0
ODI 0 62 96 424 459 74 11 0
CDI 0 33 106 313 877 356 19 0
VCDI 0 32 175 363 1692 10634 41777 41130

Date: 2015-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58781 22322 2979 1140 193 104 45 0
OW 52 206 319 662 106 22 0 0
VODI 0 97 236 670 314 35 3 0
ODI 0 21 72 361 611 118 21 0
CDI 0 6 78 310 958 562 55 2
VCDI 0 0 1 180 1420 9426 37463 47097
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58781 22142 2848 1029 199 132 45 0
OW 52 227 341 633 77 27 3 0
VODI 0 127 234 601 296 23 4 0
ODI 0 69 82 313 454 87 33 0
CDI 0 49 45 287 912 431 70 4
VCDI 0 38 135 460 1664 9567 37432 47095

Date: 2015-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59642 20576 3188 1174 175 156 37 0
OW 52 192 238 675 108 31 3 0
VODI 0 123 138 633 379 40 8 0
ODI 0 57 42 374 464 91 20 0
CDI 0 38 49 224 1044 555 43 4
VCDI 0 0 108 310 1322 11683 36817 46235
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59641 20311 3109 1222 190 182 41 0
OW 53 183 270 605 146 28 4 0
VODI 0 154 131 627 369 47 9 0
ODI 0 103 50 286 454 68 9 0
CDI 0 92 28 247 843 523 71 1
VCDI 0 143 175 403 1490 11708 36794 46238


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