Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-12-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63844 21181 3214 586 146 174 100 0
OW 61 157 435 513 44 8 0 0
VODI 0 122 325 640 255 9 0 0
ODI 0 49 274 401 465 81 8 0
CDI 0 25 169 361 700 852 120 1
VCDI 0 8 149 652 1961 11433 36664 40861
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65154 20188 2442 651 125 107 46 0
OW 66 209 445 372 73 1 0 0
VODI 0 96 305 444 347 43 0 0
ODI 0 41 211 258 372 191 11 0
CDI 0 18 108 408 561 784 144 1
VCDI 0 2 100 486 1755 10852 37377 42254
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64966 19847 2372 910 139 166 54 0
OW 71 243 395 458 95 15 0 0
VODI 0 63 155 497 249 28 0 0
ODI 0 23 93 314 637 98 0 0
CDI 0 5 69 233 943 810 150 7
VCDI 0 0 26 281 1770 13835 36148 40883
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61031 22460 2715 1105 186 200 3 0
OW 63 258 465 409 120 46 1 0
VODI 0 63 275 506 204 52 2 0
ODI 0 8 72 315 316 120 8 0
CDI 0 7 63 167 692 542 124 17
VCDI 0 0 27 381 1722 13138 33681 45484
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61031 22432 2737 1100 201 214 3 0
OW 63 294 471 443 102 28 0 0
VODI 0 55 251 494 211 54 3 0
ODI 0 9 71 306 298 121 6 0
CDI 0 6 57 161 711 560 162 14
VCDI 0 0 30 379 1717 13121 33645 45487

Date: 2014-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64591 19244 2553 767 165 236 34 0
OW 68 398 654 265 104 33 2 0
VODI 0 79 361 513 118 60 6 0
ODI 0 12 126 437 198 93 12 0
CDI 0 10 75 368 550 391 63 14
VCDI 0 0 71 592 1962 11505 32645 47673
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64591 19295 2593 785 185 246 34 0
OW 68 330 624 278 78 24 0 0
VODI 0 91 352 528 130 48 6 0
ODI 0 16 130 406 193 94 9 0
CDI 0 11 83 364 556 382 58 14
VCDI 0 0 58 581 1955 11524 32655 47673

Date: 2014-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61467 20977 4433 762 189 159 25 0
OW 66 114 448 521 80 28 5 0
VODI 0 26 135 771 141 117 0 0
ODI 0 13 52 487 347 145 4 0
CDI 0 0 64 333 786 555 138 6
VCDI 0 0 23 244 1484 14710 34683 42510
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61467 20671 3929 672 236 224 30 0
OW 66 271 489 264 83 57 0 0
VODI 0 107 411 613 92 117 8 0
ODI 0 41 91 485 121 113 34 0
CDI 0 35 67 408 484 408 175 8
VCDI 0 5 168 676 2011 14795 34608 42508

Date: 2014-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62808 21032 2723 579 178 140 0 0
OW 63 213 378 352 61 34 0 0
VODI 0 130 312 563 112 49 0 0
ODI 0 22 274 515 235 92 1 0
CDI 0 10 111 289 602 434 49 7
VCDI 0 0 83 529 2016 13662 37510 40880
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62820 20695 2477 503 229 187 0 0
OW 51 359 410 224 51 18 0 0
VODI 0 244 420 492 85 36 0 0
ODI 0 72 267 580 151 84 0 0
CDI 0 32 109 401 506 401 61 17
VCDI 0 5 198 627 2182 13685 37499 40870

Date: 2015-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59209 23900 2722 777 119 147 4 0
OW 67 297 329 398 73 47 0 0
VODI 0 205 242 518 280 76 0 0
ODI 0 76 200 264 484 100 0 0
CDI 0 40 159 238 770 451 36 8
VCDI 0 32 165 689 1735 13650 34573 43968
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59224 23600 2683 642 147 188 4 0
OW 52 405 263 368 51 71 0 0
VODI 0 264 238 492 170 86 0 0
ODI 0 125 156 299 449 108 13 0
CDI 0 101 150 248 736 461 80 28
VCDI 0 55 327 835 1908 13557 34516 43948


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