Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-12-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66914 19108 2919 642 150 209 3 0
OW 56 368 441 535 85 9 0 0
VODI 0 185 350 722 293 70 22 0
ODI 0 157 394 762 732 222 428 0
CDI 0 23 186 936 1483 649 398 12
VCDI 0 30 130 744 2930 14389 30701 38661
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62720 23157 2813 541 144 204 5 0
OW 63 287 522 495 32 2 0 0
VODI 0 146 292 649 307 80 4 0
ODI 0 124 226 471 583 355 192 0
CDI 0 33 212 725 1254 1194 357 9
VCDI 0 22 191 919 2394 14506 30963 39855
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65900 20146 3325 622 132 208 27 0
OW 62 144 317 568 76 18 0 0
VODI 0 105 194 748 296 52 0 0
ODI 0 20 136 401 512 240 2 0
CDI 0 18 130 425 991 994 158 35
VCDI 0 7 72 416 2067 13820 33580 40084
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65522 19958 2793 781 167 166 100 0
OW 65 233 324 588 96 2 0 0
VODI 0 173 203 721 350 7 0 0
ODI 0 44 211 391 470 141 8 0
CDI 0 28 107 345 978 940 131 5
VCDI 0 1 140 563 1974 12171 37157 38994
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65522 19948 2818 874 166 167 100 0
OW 65 211 276 519 89 1 0 0
VODI 0 199 238 682 359 8 0 0
ODI 0 47 211 415 500 144 16 0
CDI 0 29 96 351 944 869 150 5
VCDI 0 3 139 548 1977 12238 37130 38994

Date: 2014-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65715 19809 2663 523 148 175 38 0
OW 63 195 427 357 46 5 0 0
VODI 0 126 309 539 243 13 0 0
ODI 0 79 201 366 439 95 7 0
CDI 0 27 193 370 590 759 97 5
VCDI 0 10 137 566 1948 11944 37098 40723
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65715 19827 2678 571 157 179 38 0
OW 63 181 395 352 46 1 0 0
VODI 0 124 313 474 219 11 0 0
ODI 0 78 242 422 439 88 14 0
CDI 0 24 169 312 610 764 85 5
VCDI 0 12 133 590 1943 11948 37103 40723

Date: 2014-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66018 19567 2017 891 145 141 52 0
OW 70 151 389 507 110 7 0 0
VODI 0 39 189 563 315 20 0 0
ODI 0 11 66 343 949 68 1 0
CDI 0 0 59 288 863 973 150 1
VCDI 0 0 13 121 1566 12606 36778 41001
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66016 19366 1883 852 176 148 52 0
OW 72 241 296 399 93 1 0 0
VODI 0 100 222 468 308 28 0 0
ODI 0 48 132 286 491 84 1 0
CDI 0 13 121 278 859 628 103 5
VCDI 0 0 79 430 2021 12926 36825 40997

Date: 2014-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61784 22356 2574 919 170 182 53 0
OW 69 232 419 437 114 46 0 0
VODI 0 47 170 537 212 45 0 0
ODI 0 18 78 281 425 138 0 0
CDI 0 11 50 201 734 804 115 5
VCDI 0 0 34 313 1532 13536 35220 43187
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61784 22183 2486 880 228 211 53 0
OW 69 297 325 345 95 34 0 0
VODI 0 98 254 550 189 97 0 0
ODI 0 46 90 275 296 222 4 0
CDI 0 22 88 184 723 639 81 12
VCDI 0 18 82 454 1656 13548 35250 43180

Date: 2014-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60677 23312 2578 694 155 226 22 0
OW 63 452 600 229 90 32 2 0
VODI 0 52 381 471 105 60 8 0
ODI 0 7 130 394 205 105 13 0
CDI 0 7 80 320 657 425 92 16
VCDI 0 0 75 586 1926 12498 34348 44955
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60677 23050 2471 723 199 240 23 0
OW 63 483 416 137 90 50 4 0
VODI 0 242 479 361 159 109 14 0
ODI 0 32 196 311 200 256 35 0
CDI 0 13 134 383 509 646 260 25
VCDI 0 10 148 779 1981 12045 34149 44946


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