Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-12-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1004 226 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 173 230 75 80 1 0 0
VODI 0 232 351 321 142 58 0 0
ODI 0 119 219 523 211 257 1 0
CDI 0 0 65 344 341 715 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 119 849 7445 14526 17183
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 352 113 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 412 289 63 5 6 0 0
VODI 0 99 201 227 34 59 2 0
ODI 0 42 217 423 185 105 0 0
CDI 0 14 162 407 650 398 119 0
VCDI 0 0 2 179 973 8575 13521 18004
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 579 180 9 10 0 0 0
OW 0 99 255 247 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 94 410 71 1 0 0
ODI 0 44 63 315 191 28 0 0
CDI 0 19 31 214 536 217 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 74 1076 8299 15331 17391
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 7 23 29 15 0 0 0
OW 0 66 85 107 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 181 215 275 69 24 10 0
ODI 0 0 42 432 404 225 179 0
CDI 0 0 56 471 845 515 256 0
VCDI 0 0 2 231 1406 6961 15363 17308
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 19 51 70 23 0 0 0
OW 0 68 51 65 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 161 188 307 89 11 16 0
ODI 0 6 73 370 429 181 192 0
CDI 0 0 41 421 787 543 239 0
VCDI 0 0 19 312 1433 6990 15361 17308

Date: 2014-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 49 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 169 132 72 29 0
ODI 0 0 10 198 421 259 388 0
CDI 0 0 42 369 1161 412 402 0
VCDI 0 0 0 151 1494 7483 14773 17833
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 37 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 94 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 111 120 71 42 0
ODI 0 0 22 191 346 245 330 0
CDI 0 0 29 316 1120 404 421 0
VCDI 0 0 1 206 1590 7506 14799 17833

Date: 2014-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 2 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 31 103 120 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 57 202 370 30 4 0
CDI 0 0 6 169 499 1040 326 0
VCDI 0 0 0 103 706 6512 16792 18771
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 21 180 59 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 147 226 101 0
CDI 0 0 35 259 321 435 587 0
VCDI 0 0 59 282 1020 6862 16434 18771

Date: 2014-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 1 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 57 90 2 0
CDI 0 0 1 170 426 513 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 659 7122 17733 18963
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 16 63 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 20 194 47 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 173 550 181 0
VCDI 0 0 1 192 934 6930 17548 18963

Date: 2014-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 27 22 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 213 427 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 99 735 5411 19795 19061
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 4 76 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 22 133 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 153 395 162 0
VCDI 0 0 0 97 796 5256 19669 19061


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