Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-11-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2487 7749 1503 113 10 0 0 0
OW 0 373 524 324 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 247 346 866 561 13 0 0
ODI 0 191 230 500 951 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 68 654 597 0 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 240 2204 7849 17133
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1124 8638 1745 87 0 0 0 0
OW 0 317 393 246 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 153 334 613 173 17 0 0
ODI 0 276 185 481 304 205 0 0
CDI 0 61 161 202 660 878 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 675 4125 8628 15159
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1268 8452 2154 86 0 0 0 0
OW 0 413 535 337 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 102 694 272 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 196 660 82 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 348 873 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 439 3595 8706 16600
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1304 8320 1740 57 0 0 0 0
OW 0 204 364 68 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 266 361 346 73 0 0 0
ODI 0 57 144 651 485 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 142 679 230 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 807 5358 8578 15531
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1304 8357 1783 60 0 0 0 0
OW 0 173 383 89 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 268 308 386 78 0 0 0
ODI 0 49 136 577 383 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 134 744 235 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 837 5373 8578 15531

Date: 2014-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1173 8010 1997 62 0 0 0 0
OW 0 166 390 111 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 260 437 52 3 0 0
ODI 0 97 154 350 307 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 18 374 760 309 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 144 1053 5367 9900 14307
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1173 7975 2040 91 0 0 0 0
OW 0 142 269 162 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 83 305 349 65 2 0 0
ODI 0 117 192 312 275 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 13 378 701 304 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 186 1131 5376 9900 14307

Date: 2014-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1132 8280 2043 78 0 0 0 0
OW 0 106 357 214 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 96 191 560 60 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 360 576 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 64 938 395 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 1077 5346 9179 14784
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1132 8050 1798 29 0 0 0 0
OW 0 220 233 54 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 76 302 185 11 3 0 0
ODI 0 108 126 373 236 6 0 0
CDI 0 28 132 415 721 82 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 233 1683 5667 9179 14784

Date: 2014-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1123 8325 1768 34 0 0 0 0
OW 0 144 421 108 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 149 413 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 44 65 329 244 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 16 219 781 242 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 71 1410 4812 8050 17047
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1123 7952 1680 34 0 0 0 0
OW 0 347 217 36 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 162 206 92 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 17 170 197 38 13 0 0
CDI 0 56 122 343 405 142 11 0
VCDI 0 0 24 472 2008 4913 8039 17047

Date: 2014-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 787 7950 2033 64 0 0 0 0
OW 0 79 431 202 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 175 452 96 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 258 264 57 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 198 411 279 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 68 1028 6293 13342 11380
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 787 7687 1968 57 0 0 0 0
OW 0 208 336 137 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 99 184 313 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 34 80 223 87 26 0 0
CDI 0 2 60 206 291 143 24 0
VCDI 0 0 29 306 1418 6460 13318 11380


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