Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-11-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81331 23321 3750 645 110 3 0 0
OW 31 880 828 590 144 36 1 0
VODI 0 674 819 1364 808 73 18 0
ODI 0 299 482 1023 1558 136 14 0
CDI 0 67 84 367 1504 1296 93 16
VCDI 0 58 75 285 920 8562 25316 29467
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74482 28607 4521 667 37 0 0 0
OW 35 763 632 473 107 18 1 0
VODI 0 603 685 893 365 100 10 0
ODI 0 422 434 1002 628 346 24 0
CDI 0 127 245 571 1171 1632 101 41
VCDI 0 3 74 278 1245 8626 23640 33439
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74404 29149 4776 738 177 0 0 0
OW 34 710 840 741 128 2 0 0
VODI 0 168 388 990 518 28 0 0
ODI 0 7 119 516 917 201 1 0
CDI 0 0 15 206 1015 1652 39 29
VCDI 0 0 0 75 1181 11131 20521 35632
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74946 26767 5156 588 93 0 0 0
OW 38 491 718 398 104 5 0 0
VODI 0 435 787 809 353 68 0 0
ODI 0 59 308 1011 771 183 0 0
CDI 0 0 14 375 1088 827 72 2
VCDI 0 0 6 196 1441 14170 28492 26277
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74946 26882 5270 672 106 0 0 0
OW 38 424 698 426 161 11 0 0
VODI 0 397 703 783 329 63 0 0
ODI 0 49 288 939 698 175 1 0
CDI 0 0 23 357 1124 858 76 2
VCDI 0 0 7 200 1432 14146 28487 26277

Date: 2014-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74488 27160 4511 451 103 19 0 0
OW 41 618 740 346 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 211 720 791 266 26 0 0
ODI 0 162 327 872 665 55 0 0
CDI 0 9 90 599 1206 614 19 11
VCDI 0 15 61 493 1937 13456 26429 29473
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74488 27325 4664 519 110 19 0 0
OW 41 431 568 402 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 251 730 703 305 31 0 0
ODI 0 149 369 753 689 49 0 0
CDI 0 11 68 647 1096 645 30 0
VCDI 0 8 50 528 1994 13426 26418 29484

Date: 2014-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75261 27277 4582 631 159 0 0 0
OW 28 302 791 648 72 0 0 0
VODI 0 121 350 1077 384 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 618 1158 183 0 0
CDI 0 0 15 248 1487 1102 44 7
VCDI 0 0 12 113 1770 13051 23278 32248
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75247 26509 3964 589 168 0 0 0
OW 42 631 482 227 72 0 0 0
VODI 0 372 679 398 192 6 0 0
ODI 0 160 393 816 579 42 0 0
CDI 0 28 226 796 1136 275 7 7
VCDI 0 0 19 509 2883 14031 23315 32248

Date: 2014-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73525 27923 4025 598 192 0 0 0
OW 41 363 947 468 104 5 0 0
VODI 0 83 499 983 309 94 0 0
ODI 0 44 107 693 555 217 2 0
CDI 0 0 19 448 1285 856 137 19
VCDI 0 0 8 255 2273 13370 24090 32511
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73523 27370 3802 710 314 9 0 0
OW 43 698 546 196 126 15 0 0
VODI 0 267 660 384 175 50 0 0
ODI 0 22 370 652 393 224 22 3
CDI 0 56 178 721 795 685 113 35
VCDI 0 0 49 782 2915 13559 24094 32492

Date: 2014-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73893 25409 4625 694 231 0 0 0
OW 44 489 727 424 142 9 0 0
VODI 0 104 531 885 234 43 0 0
ODI 0 1 74 643 574 192 0 1
CDI 0 0 13 466 915 990 135 22
VCDI 0 0 0 202 1785 14506 29162 28883
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73893 25173 4389 799 449 32 0 0
OW 44 523 656 263 111 55 0 0
VODI 0 271 517 679 150 95 0 0
ODI 0 34 275 605 350 231 9 0
CDI 0 2 102 462 670 1011 197 2
VCDI 0 0 31 506 2151 14316 29091 28904


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