Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-10-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78493 16062 1457 228 44 18 0 0
OW 9 125 194 140 30 31 0 0
VODI 0 7 147 206 83 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 52 122 151 59 0 0
CDI 0 0 17 151 248 150 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 90 630 2551 4310 3265
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80058 14803 1191 194 21 9 0 0
OW 12 197 296 100 31 32 0 0
VODI 0 55 136 303 78 24 0 0
ODI 0 20 74 161 166 12 0 0
CDI 0 2 79 224 248 34 0 0
VCDI 0 0 20 224 665 2829 3974 2828
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79650 15470 1378 308 43 15 0 0
OW 12 74 284 142 33 50 0 0
VODI 0 26 114 316 68 23 0 0
ODI 0 14 61 162 163 55 0 0
CDI 0 0 54 207 231 116 0 0
VCDI 0 0 6 72 444 2755 5251 1503
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79047 15098 1728 395 93 6 0 0
OW 18 150 210 198 36 43 3 0
VODI 0 46 130 261 111 45 25 0
ODI 0 7 84 136 204 43 7 0
CDI 0 0 50 169 253 196 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 140 373 2238 5247 2309
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79047 15109 1791 406 94 17 0 0
OW 18 141 160 204 36 49 13 0
VODI 0 47 131 270 114 37 20 0
ODI 0 4 77 112 194 49 2 0
CDI 0 0 43 177 281 190 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 130 351 2229 5247 2309

Date: 2014-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74478 19168 1818 418 11 1 0 0
OW 34 146 175 204 58 18 0 0
VODI 0 39 95 227 179 46 2 0
ODI 0 30 52 162 243 68 0 0
CDI 0 0 43 121 302 237 3 0
VCDI 0 0 30 151 372 1720 4732 3717
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74478 19253 1842 450 19 4 0 0
OW 34 76 163 179 47 20 0 0
VODI 0 32 88 232 170 45 2 0
ODI 0 21 47 160 239 75 0 0
CDI 0 1 41 110 324 228 3 0
VCDI 0 0 32 152 366 1718 4732 3717

Date: 2014-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72311 20830 2005 561 96 0 0 0
OW 34 107 73 278 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 31 221 150 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 103 204 67 3 0
CDI 0 0 4 57 303 529 54 0
VCDI 0 0 0 43 242 2130 4926 3635
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72307 20679 1847 553 159 0 0 0
OW 38 157 128 176 80 23 0 0
VODI 0 60 88 205 112 69 6 0
ODI 0 24 24 127 99 108 27 0
CDI 0 19 26 98 258 333 39 0
VCDI 0 0 13 104 354 2214 4911 3635

Date: 2014-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71138 20479 2916 600 167 2 0 0
OW 37 108 62 316 74 21 0 0
VODI 0 51 39 201 142 48 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 107 202 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 8 46 253 239 17 0
VCDI 0 0 4 69 200 2141 4498 4841
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71137 20420 2744 632 241 39 0 0
OW 38 118 149 139 71 43 0 0
VODI 0 72 74 256 98 86 2 0
ODI 0 22 25 119 135 108 14 0
CDI 0 6 32 87 206 284 33 0
VCDI 0 0 14 106 287 1956 4466 4841

Date: 2014-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73463 18415 2329 403 149 8 0 0
OW 41 158 201 158 47 20 0 0
VODI 0 131 87 229 98 44 0 0
ODI 0 10 41 129 147 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 30 111 195 105 2 0
VCDI 0 0 8 133 447 2774 5051 3890
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73463 18268 2268 549 249 69 0 0
OW 41 200 169 95 61 44 0 0
VODI 0 110 141 137 106 94 3 0
ODI 0 90 48 108 108 131 7 0
CDI 0 44 41 129 139 171 41 0
VCDI 0 2 29 145 420 2488 5002 3890


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