Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2014-09-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3297 14341 978 111 0 0 0 0
OW 0 989 749 591 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 71 315 1462 305 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 410 1283 187 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 32 925 868 234 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 636 3201 1076
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2649 14681 892 96 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1152 649 584 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 124 483 1341 359 90 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 464 787 444 100 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 733 665 585 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 591 3140 1387
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2606 15284 1151 77 0 0 0 0
OW 0 520 875 506 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 208 1577 140 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 354 913 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 6 516 1220 166 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 243 3737 1882
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2334 15184 1021 55 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1209 731 223 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 107 500 1450 105 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 568 712 59 6 0
CDI 0 0 1 59 702 816 388 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 102 940 3473 1277
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2334 15577 1100 65 5 0 0 0
OW 0 801 666 430 25 1 0 0
VODI 0 122 485 1224 209 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 17 543 563 94 8 0
CDI 0 0 1 93 694 782 444 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 151 936 3415 1277

Date: 2014-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2778 14355 834 31 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1566 651 169 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 247 628 1481 88 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 38 546 696 66 6 0
CDI 0 0 1 72 647 856 94 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 856 3931 1360
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2778 14561 957 45 1 0 0 0
OW 0 1219 482 251 29 3 0 0
VODI 0 388 658 1299 152 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 53 584 582 70 13 0
CDI 0 0 2 120 639 653 113 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 84 1052 3905 1360

Date: 2014-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2667 15757 1446 86 2 0 0 0
OW 0 88 747 359 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 67 1537 161 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 172 1121 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 2 376 1155 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 451 4116 1699
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2667 14037 935 47 3 0 0 0
OW 0 980 477 271 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 828 741 1049 272 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 106 666 619 59 1 0
CDI 0 0 2 123 655 441 77 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 110 1122 4052 1699

Date: 2014-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2089 15200 1461 86 1 0 0 0
OW 0 423 918 440 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 157 1128 496 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 190 825 235 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 16 393 819 119 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 695 4479 1884
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2089 13796 1126 39 0 0 0 0
OW 0 939 415 192 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 765 711 798 430 40 0 0
ODI 0 124 281 634 537 260 12 0
CDI 0 0 4 195 603 442 125 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 133 1009 4461 1884

Date: 2014-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2018 14638 1238 55 0 0 0 0
OW 0 566 847 513 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 55 199 1180 512 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 196 732 375 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 35 325 846 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 98 859 4653 2035
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2009 13436 1081 42 0 0 0 0
OW 9 989 349 237 29 2 0 0
VODI 0 674 539 841 376 59 0 0
ODI 0 152 253 622 707 375 0 0
CDI 0 8 63 224 354 667 96 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 207 983 4646 2035


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