Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-09-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7377 12709 1696 265 0 0 0 0
OW 0 76 269 622 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 110 735 99 3 3 0
ODI 0 0 31 464 272 68 23 0
CDI 0 0 10 853 1454 607 376 1
VCDI 0 0 0 135 460 1887 7710 7518
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6320 13581 1775 300 5 0 0 0
OW 0 115 307 563 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 158 632 131 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 76 439 287 50 32 2
CDI 0 0 68 864 1276 770 878 62
VCDI 0 0 0 47 430 1234 8817 6590
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6656 13113 2347 482 9 0 0 0
OW 0 27 293 673 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 177 767 122 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 41 682 548 1 12 1
CDI 0 0 2 393 1713 609 141 16
VCDI 0 0 0 29 111 1183 4846 10842
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4516 15479 2134 314 20 0 0 0
OW 0 87 314 552 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 317 570 133 1 2 0
ODI 0 0 99 582 474 25 27 0
CDI 0 0 32 554 1511 963 407 50
VCDI 0 0 0 28 117 1117 6313 9057
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4516 15516 2165 343 24 0 0 0
OW 0 53 262 518 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 319 606 143 0 2 0
ODI 0 0 114 546 490 29 27 1
CDI 0 0 36 556 1480 1002 415 47
VCDI 0 0 0 31 136 1075 6305 9059

Date: 2014-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3610 16128 2126 257 9 0 0 0
OW 0 124 461 497 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 344 589 82 0 1 0
ODI 0 1 193 567 393 4 22 0
CDI 0 0 73 702 1634 868 523 88
VCDI 0 0 0 20 153 1844 5957 8531
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3610 16168 2235 358 15 0 0 0
OW 0 77 343 364 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 345 594 86 0 1 0
ODI 0 4 192 580 369 1 25 0
CDI 0 0 82 714 1602 891 608 84
VCDI 0 0 0 22 209 1824 5869 8535

Date: 2014-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5698 14144 2715 350 0 0 0 0
OW 0 180 534 446 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 183 1202 108 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 34 618 848 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 208 1149 1442 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 24 798 5755 9380
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5698 14044 2404 374 0 0 0 0
OW 0 123 423 279 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 122 282 549 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 35 210 696 201 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 151 885 1385 660 324 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 497 1580 5464 9380

Date: 2014-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5828 13964 2674 440 0 0 0 0
OW 0 37 364 599 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 164 1194 143 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 21 525 834 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 25 177 1067 1206 243 0
VCDI 0 0 0 57 123 622 6448 9099
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5828 13808 2120 298 0 0 0 0
OW 0 141 480 330 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 353 478 47 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 232 813 209 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 39 945 1298 358 233 0
VCDI 0 0 24 128 614 1478 6458 9099

Date: 2014-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4200 15645 2560 292 0 0 0 0
OW 0 189 247 563 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 139 343 873 193 3 0 0
ODI 0 4 78 631 611 24 0 0
CDI 0 3 12 298 973 1049 136 0
VCDI 0 0 21 132 259 1099 5520 9754
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4200 15286 2041 201 0 0 0 0
OW 0 329 430 274 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 212 324 394 57 0 0 0
ODI 0 117 182 636 225 4 0 0
CDI 0 29 244 950 903 302 199 0
VCDI 0 7 40 334 863 1869 5457 9754


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