Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2014-08-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9095 10426 1749 296 2 0 0 0
OW 0 58 238 405 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 104 737 105 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 55 444 354 21 7 0
CDI 0 0 12 611 1252 674 337 0
VCDI 0 0 0 131 712 1606 5673 10736
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8081 11731 1600 289 0 0 0 0
OW 0 92 202 476 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 126 632 142 6 0 0
ODI 0 3 51 385 345 38 7 0
CDI 0 0 22 590 1354 666 486 0
VCDI 0 0 0 271 867 1760 5598 10009
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7269 12744 1647 279 0 0 0 0
OW 0 21 275 525 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 67 947 80 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 402 526 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 8 549 1653 810 271 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 181 1147 4941 11460
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8087 11878 1866 243 0 0 0 0
OW 0 43 307 601 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 94 800 77 5 3 0
ODI 0 0 35 397 388 60 12 0
CDI 0 0 43 702 1416 575 459 4
VCDI 0 0 0 141 366 1285 4719 11257
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8087 11877 1873 298 0 0 0 0
OW 0 38 291 550 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 102 785 72 9 5 0
ODI 0 0 37 394 429 66 14 0
CDI 0 0 42 743 1426 557 439 6
VCDI 0 0 0 114 318 1293 4735 11255

Date: 2014-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6667 13321 1722 282 0 0 0 0
OW 0 84 277 625 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 133 717 94 1 2 0
ODI 0 0 38 468 302 23 25 0
CDI 0 0 16 842 1570 616 478 67
VCDI 0 0 0 119 393 1687 7478 7796
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6667 13314 1709 312 1 0 0 0
OW 0 91 266 564 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 173 736 68 3 5 0
ODI 0 0 27 509 281 20 26 0
CDI 0 0 11 823 1642 620 470 67
VCDI 0 0 0 109 367 1684 7482 7796

Date: 2014-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6646 13433 1956 245 11 0 0 0
OW 0 20 451 648 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 197 976 93 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 39 684 668 17 8 1
CDI 0 0 0 213 1310 1045 127 7
VCDI 0 0 0 11 78 830 6570 9565
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6646 13266 1838 299 9 0 0 0
OW 0 130 302 474 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 57 257 508 116 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 97 495 200 60 31 7
CDI 0 0 149 968 1334 639 948 39
VCDI 0 0 0 33 471 1192 5726 9527

Date: 2014-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5218 14976 1887 446 14 0 0 0
OW 0 80 307 589 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 247 658 131 0 1 0
ODI 0 0 79 614 517 6 22 4
CDI 0 0 6 498 1698 655 296 56
VCDI 0 0 0 39 137 1189 6880 8554
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5218 14636 1640 273 13 0 0 0
OW 0 267 318 483 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 129 281 477 159 0 0 0
ODI 0 32 119 423 279 1 10 7
CDI 0 0 168 1072 1476 496 874 134
VCDI 0 0 0 116 553 1353 6315 8473

Date: 2014-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3949 16019 2005 276 0 0 0 0
OW 0 80 419 539 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 340 611 107 3 3 1
ODI 0 0 114 626 381 13 35 12
CDI 0 0 46 629 1524 885 558 113
VCDI 0 0 0 18 104 1219 5192 9999
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3949 15563 1683 251 14 0 0 0
OW 0 266 432 301 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 204 449 535 113 0 0 0
ODI 0 66 167 383 285 29 16 1
CDI 0 14 157 1032 1059 745 1267 321
VCDI 0 0 36 197 639 1346 4505 9803


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