Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2014-08-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2289 13073 1175 236 16 0 0 0
OW 0 89 548 725 107 4 0 0
VODI 0 4 102 1260 744 66 8 0
ODI 0 0 20 210 2042 839 162 0
CDI 0 0 1 40 405 1786 2838 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 18 265 2416 593
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1888 13792 1085 205 16 10 0 0
OW 0 229 665 613 97 3 6 0
VODI 0 19 201 1306 809 122 9 0
ODI 0 4 24 261 1607 725 290 0
CDI 0 0 14 57 432 1294 2828 213
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 215 2428 603
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2110 13944 1378 275 16 0 0 0
OW 0 32 484 828 20 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 41 1347 444 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 169 2255 97 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 1368 1544 171 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 1712 2977 785
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1106 15441 1187 177 13 7 0 0
OW 0 103 631 684 34 11 1 0
VODI 0 0 74 1350 523 22 12 0
ODI 0 0 7 298 1468 369 82 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 1283 1450 288 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 121 843 3744 710
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1106 15447 1232 224 15 9 0 0
OW 0 97 581 632 35 11 1 0
VODI 0 0 79 1285 560 28 11 0
ODI 0 0 7 378 1384 387 86 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 1339 1436 243 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 109 831 3786 710

Date: 2014-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2538 14464 1108 140 9 0 0 0
OW 0 215 657 664 29 5 0 0
VODI 0 26 174 1232 633 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 60 274 1291 380 1 0
CDI 0 0 8 123 1287 1289 274 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 106 1789 2877 413
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2538 14442 1238 170 11 0 0 0
OW 0 212 530 642 51 6 0 0
VODI 0 46 153 1199 690 11 0 0
ODI 0 5 70 251 1229 416 7 0
CDI 0 0 16 174 1261 1303 349 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 113 1740 2796 413

Date: 2014-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3025 14673 1258 132 13 0 0 0
OW 0 66 483 599 9 8 0 0
VODI 0 3 90 1798 315 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 227 1875 66 2 0
CDI 0 0 3 50 812 1865 84 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 33 686 3527 343
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3025 14326 1137 271 45 9 0 0
OW 0 221 429 686 66 15 0 0
VODI 0 135 86 1249 681 15 1 0
ODI 0 45 90 325 1046 228 6 0
CDI 0 15 108 264 1113 1413 256 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 106 962 3350 343

Date: 2014-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2622 14973 1410 222 28 0 0 0
OW 0 62 380 707 32 1 0 0
VODI 0 1 93 1679 429 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 262 1524 74 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 83 1053 1345 162 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 128 1182 2881 724
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2622 14453 1243 334 79 1 0 0
OW 0 347 347 764 85 6 0 0
VODI 0 126 150 1257 633 9 0 0
ODI 0 68 56 323 1030 126 0 0
CDI 0 42 105 272 1173 1301 214 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 194 1166 2829 724

Date: 2014-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3007 14235 1212 476 1 0 0 0
OW 0 144 344 757 84 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 135 1382 639 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 33 289 1299 170 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 117 1123 1409 172 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 377 1577 2746 335
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3007 13697 1136 724 91 0 0 0
OW 0 344 296 728 215 0 0 0
VODI 0 175 130 973 770 28 0 0
ODI 0 95 48 310 797 254 9 0
CDI 0 78 114 286 1176 1285 235 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 474 1596 2676 335


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