Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-08-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93226 32164 4579 1803 15 0 0 0
OW 0 159 960 1986 153 7 0 0
VODI 0 16 272 2852 1538 65 17 0
ODI 0 1 36 862 4362 965 97 0
CDI 0 0 8 131 6180 6145 1900 2
VCDI 0 0 0 15 1014 4078 12049 9391
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91636 35110 3977 1600 28 3 0 0
OW 0 339 989 2004 298 19 2 0
VODI 0 44 363 2581 1599 156 18 0
ODI 0 0 56 765 3447 1739 57 1
CDI 0 0 5 186 2046 5364 5193 314
VCDI 0 0 0 16 744 2341 10481 13527
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88514 38534 5481 1433 42 0 0 0
OW 0 15 828 1742 129 10 0 0
VODI 0 4 151 2672 1084 73 3 0
ODI 0 2 12 454 4014 809 20 0
CDI 0 0 1 115 1873 5120 2258 3
VCDI 0 0 0 7 331 3752 16184 11378
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93075 36001 3896 1515 54 7 0 0
OW 0 170 985 1754 153 38 0 0
VODI 0 13 369 2178 1197 139 22 0
ODI 0 0 43 478 3157 895 281 0
CDI 0 0 0 258 1602 3869 3139 319
VCDI 0 0 0 7 346 3676 13859 13553
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93075 35994 3983 1623 94 12 0 0
OW 0 173 876 1572 188 38 0 0
VODI 0 17 382 2186 1276 149 30 0
ODI 0 0 51 552 2965 812 277 0
CDI 0 0 1 242 1685 4065 3110 355
VCDI 0 0 0 15 301 3548 13884 13517

Date: 2014-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94719 35598 3504 1209 52 9 0 0
OW 0 576 1060 1471 180 37 1 0
VODI 0 118 520 1804 1296 195 15 0
ODI 0 5 161 562 2313 1246 205 0
CDI 0 0 41 335 1447 2742 4196 85
VCDI 0 0 0 31 271 1373 12140 17531
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94719 35707 3580 1397 106 13 0 0
OW 0 468 955 1190 213 30 4 0
VODI 0 119 565 1874 1386 234 11 0
ODI 0 3 147 599 2067 1144 202 0
CDI 0 0 39 306 1494 2919 4086 91
VCDI 0 0 0 46 293 1262 12254 17525

Date: 2014-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96470 35265 3527 1152 23 4 0 0
OW 0 205 1255 1238 47 6 1 0
VODI 0 2 196 3026 516 25 10 0
ODI 0 0 48 545 3503 141 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 195 1843 3896 411 1
VCDI 0 0 0 9 243 1500 13893 17827
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96470 34378 3360 1800 112 12 6 0
OW 0 729 777 1043 238 22 15 0
VODI 0 298 565 1800 1383 248 65 0
ODI 0 65 168 830 1657 818 456 0
CDI 0 2 156 648 2039 2377 3659 50
VCDI 0 0 0 44 746 2095 10139 17778

Date: 2014-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91427 40148 4858 1138 29 6 0 0
OW 0 79 821 1580 60 12 0 0
VODI 0 2 192 2338 807 44 11 0
ODI 0 0 41 657 2385 586 44 0
CDI 0 0 3 436 2530 2487 1108 2
VCDI 0 0 0 59 603 3045 14499 15011
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91427 39147 4290 1566 115 23 2 0
OW 0 729 781 1020 259 53 18 0
VODI 0 265 520 1775 1303 422 66 0
ODI 0 70 166 814 1237 1120 407 0
CDI 0 18 158 965 2488 1594 4341 61
VCDI 0 0 0 68 1012 2968 10828 14952

Date: 2014-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95906 37334 3771 956 26 2 0 0
OW 0 270 1003 1362 59 10 0 0
VODI 0 23 302 2251 792 29 4 0
ODI 0 0 114 838 1953 459 27 0
CDI 0 0 22 750 2963 2280 681 0
VCDI 0 0 0 143 839 4041 14548 13290
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95906 36159 3311 1461 89 8 0 0
OW 0 1000 770 864 378 19 4 0
VODI 0 333 735 1494 1366 307 27 0
ODI 0 94 205 1001 1245 956 183 0
CDI 0 41 191 1372 2626 2529 3249 62
VCDI 0 0 0 108 928 3002 11797 13228


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