Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-07-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83104 13222 1338 1057 8 0 0 0
OW 0 0 20 683 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 532 254 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 88 672 276 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 809 4719 984 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 924 343 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81232 14752 1770 1096 13 0 0 0
OW 0 0 23 628 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 377 358 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 87 515 397 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 214 2983 3216 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 161 1179 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82865 13742 1305 873 27 0 0 0
OW 0 0 29 446 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 463 368 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 485 160 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 37 1136 1149 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 1016 4749 166
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82820 13844 1070 972 37 0 0 0
OW 0 0 18 561 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 570 216 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 407 115 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 89 1357 584 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2394 3961 10
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82820 13844 1071 968 38 0 0 0
OW 0 0 17 488 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 642 207 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 430 142 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 73 1239 638 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2482 3881 10

Date: 2014-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84384 12384 1135 789 6 0 0 0
OW 0 0 41 545 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 584 140 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 81 426 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 291 1244 236 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 2397 4042 264
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84384 12384 1139 750 10 0 0 0
OW 0 0 37 518 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 662 139 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 481 68 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 244 1292 243 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 2329 4035 264

Date: 2014-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84838 12002 1006 671 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 41 418 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 731 100 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 441 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 79 1085 42 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 997 5692 825
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84838 12002 1013 770 13 0 0 0
OW 0 0 35 564 43 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 500 250 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 295 216 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 412 1547 99
VCDI 0 0 0 0 65 1458 4156 726

Date: 2014-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84828 12015 1014 679 3 0 0 0
OW 0 2 82 467 26 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 558 132 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 58 310 12 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 182 675 176 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 75 829 4092 2849
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84828 12017 1032 752 25 1 0 0
OW 0 0 69 522 77 13 1 0
VODI 0 0 6 467 228 38 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 270 209 72 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 27 278 1944 157
VCDI 0 0 0 0 101 989 2248 2692

Date: 2014-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84446 12305 1079 637 5 0 0 0
OW 0 15 104 471 28 3 0 0
VODI 0 4 30 425 174 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 55 261 32 6 0
CDI 0 0 2 29 216 318 242 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 383 2521 4162 1116
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84446 12316 1122 744 53 5 0 0
OW 0 7 83 471 112 17 5 0
VODI 0 1 19 347 249 90 15 0
ODI 0 0 9 43 225 159 122 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 54 396 2153 41
VCDI 0 0 0 0 374 2218 2115 1077


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