Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-04-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-04-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58675 20762 2602 1607 597 127 4 0
OW 52 154 322 488 455 108 4 0
VODI 0 66 210 461 576 388 64 0
ODI 0 16 80 333 493 737 98 30
CDI 0 2 51 255 489 965 283 116
VCDI 0 0 15 280 1285 8738 34343 50717
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-04-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58528 20328 2543 1826 826 139 6 0
OW 52 134 322 450 575 117 24 0
VODI 0 61 229 374 593 636 53 0
ODI 0 22 69 320 348 579 140 0
CDI 0 3 64 250 579 1085 427 31
VCDI 0 0 12 360 1192 8433 35403 49915
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59672 18787 2833 1734 694 108 0 0
OW 52 21 256 842 341 104 0 0
VODI 0 11 57 723 616 205 1 0
ODI 0 0 14 293 939 638 21 0
CDI 0 0 3 165 773 1572 224 37
VCDI 0 0 0 66 942 8592 35856 49856
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60790 18456 2682 1589 569 75 0 0
OW 52 168 401 884 251 86 1 0
VODI 0 52 180 865 628 188 10 0
ODI 0 21 63 428 874 437 33 11
CDI 0 6 66 284 695 790 262 96
VCDI 0 0 17 469 1882 10174 33807 48706
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60790 18579 2901 2306 815 156 0 0
OW 52 64 217 497 249 114 2 0
VODI 0 38 140 527 354 170 11 0
ODI 0 15 60 354 580 208 43 16
CDI 0 7 59 292 838 683 216 87
VCDI 0 0 32 543 2063 10419 33841 48710

Date: 2014-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59992 18764 2649 2109 806 90 0 0
OW 51 126 348 782 476 128 4 0
VODI 0 65 185 652 831 303 12 0
ODI 0 24 78 271 816 628 41 23
CDI 0 18 45 208 972 1266 201 68
VCDI 0 9 70 454 2497 10817 33788 46381
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59992 18846 2846 2889 1241 261 4 0
OW 51 64 184 323 270 132 7 0
VODI 0 52 151 321 474 195 10 0
ODI 0 18 67 182 691 349 33 0
CDI 0 14 41 212 990 1217 222 92
VCDI 0 12 86 549 2732 11078 33770 46380

Date: 2014-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59794 19195 2999 1614 553 132 0 0
OW 51 40 307 1091 344 100 0 0
VODI 0 33 68 893 984 255 0 0
ODI 0 19 34 180 1020 691 41 43
CDI 0 1 36 240 1396 2521 412 80
VCDI 0 0 0 92 1697 9120 35255 45717
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59794 19130 2853 2628 1126 475 1 0
OW 51 65 201 293 284 173 13 0
VODI 0 34 188 284 414 254 24 0
ODI 0 22 74 262 609 367 94 65
CDI 0 19 54 263 715 1337 401 75
VCDI 0 18 74 380 2846 10213 35175 45700

Date: 2014-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61445 17725 2802 2145 543 102 4 0
OW 51 24 250 862 609 155 10 0
VODI 0 17 75 485 926 369 38 0
ODI 0 9 24 221 596 731 108 25
CDI 0 0 19 304 1318 1618 613 46
VCDI 0 0 0 84 1857 9544 34023 47271
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61445 17715 2687 2546 1370 507 51 0
OW 51 29 192 243 244 152 25 0
VODI 0 15 143 324 326 314 46 0
ODI 0 11 45 297 355 389 106 0
CDI 0 5 76 329 874 1358 522 46
VCDI 0 0 27 362 2680 9799 34046 47296

Date: 2014-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61969 17457 2598 2121 638 265 20 0
OW 51 36 309 705 527 238 34 0
VODI 0 14 52 463 728 450 65 13
ODI 0 7 19 186 487 664 139 19
CDI 0 0 13 232 1017 1604 672 60
VCDI 0 0 0 104 1209 9184 36824 45855
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61969 17460 2648 2534 1308 835 79 0
OW 51 34 148 228 215 194 55 0
VODI 0 12 122 251 311 287 74 0
ODI 0 7 36 207 302 373 85 0
CDI 0 1 37 297 738 1146 463 24
VCDI 0 0 0 294 1732 9570 36998 45923


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