Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-01-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63581 19677 2831 824 140 12 2 0
OW 63 310 477 554 154 23 8 0
VODI 0 129 310 604 275 82 13 0
ODI 0 76 140 328 411 108 28 0
CDI 0 22 228 218 703 471 153 11
VCDI 0 0 211 522 1697 9303 28394 53955
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62777 20688 2719 775 109 4 0 0
OW 63 410 526 515 121 28 2 0
VODI 0 206 371 546 247 79 11 0
ODI 0 136 122 358 295 159 29 0
CDI 0 146 139 252 592 477 125 0
VCDI 0 116 250 543 1853 8722 30648 51889
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-01-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60537 22820 2611 1289 336 36 0 0
OW 63 198 363 641 163 53 0 0
VODI 0 184 197 700 344 131 1 0
ODI 0 209 114 332 523 211 27 0
CDI 0 103 162 219 767 674 189 0
VCDI 0 0 52 327 1385 10472 32077 48538
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-01-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60979 21996 2958 894 45 5 0 0
OW 63 219 521 602 153 12 1 0
VODI 0 124 346 691 399 61 8 0
ODI 0 63 184 459 673 197 31 0
CDI 0 75 133 482 1128 836 200 4
VCDI 0 112 95 382 1693 10132 30112 49980
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60979 22081 3211 1176 105 6 0 0
OW 63 157 311 471 147 12 0 0
VODI 0 97 304 545 341 46 6 0
ODI 0 55 174 419 580 213 33 0
CDI 0 65 138 485 1103 791 223 5
VCDI 0 134 99 414 1815 10175 30090 49979

Date: 2014-01-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60397 21403 3079 1304 219 21 5 0
OW 51 175 498 641 216 26 19 0
VODI 0 88 374 680 407 77 34 0
ODI 0 40 161 458 681 104 42 0
CDI 0 46 86 468 1221 847 205 13
VCDI 0 119 105 299 1483 7802 31006 52148
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60385 21486 3353 1663 331 42 14 0
OW 63 127 319 384 175 16 12 0
VODI 0 59 286 519 316 50 26 0
ODI 0 30 137 480 508 96 28 0
CDI 0 36 88 440 1231 789 206 14
VCDI 0 133 120 364 1666 7884 31025 52147

Date: 2014-01-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61496 21220 3145 1039 113 0 0 0
OW 63 261 544 818 197 6 0 0
VODI 0 51 185 834 498 51 1 0
ODI 0 1 22 452 673 245 11 0
CDI 0 0 12 172 1007 1230 212 15
VCDI 0 0 6 139 936 7369 33490 50534
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61496 21094 3091 1246 351 13 0 0
OW 63 138 305 435 175 45 1 0
VODI 0 93 217 522 291 92 15 0
ODI 0 37 137 432 327 137 28 0
CDI 0 21 57 455 814 838 211 21
VCDI 0 150 107 364 1466 7776 33459 50528

Date: 2014-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61681 20286 3178 1174 93 18 0 0
OW 51 102 459 879 198 21 0 0
VODI 0 61 236 737 486 91 0 0
ODI 0 149 72 406 676 323 28 0
CDI 0 3 37 219 896 1104 204 27
VCDI 0 0 19 221 875 7377 36451 48210
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61681 20227 3170 1650 388 63 0 0
OW 51 105 267 384 159 53 0 0
VODI 0 37 254 440 267 75 16 0
ODI 0 38 137 352 378 167 29 0
CDI 0 36 37 352 817 958 298 17
VCDI 0 158 136 458 1215 7618 36340 48220

Date: 2014-01-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60399 21026 3117 1346 145 23 0 0
OW 51 103 420 772 221 26 0 0
VODI 0 48 251 778 442 74 1 0
ODI 0 82 60 420 554 287 40 0
CDI 0 50 79 296 916 1100 174 4
VCDI 0 0 32 254 1114 8202 34641 49500
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60399 20913 3110 1983 545 80 0 0
OW 51 105 261 323 200 69 1 0
VODI 0 86 203 406 305 167 6 0
ODI 0 29 148 346 292 434 39 0
CDI 0 31 54 404 714 1115 297 24
VCDI 0 145 183 404 1336 7847 34513 49480


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