Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-02-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-02-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66431 17311 373 436 167 108 44 0
OW 57 822 143 353 159 74 6 0
VODI 0 694 139 333 308 161 23 0
ODI 0 371 62 211 269 259 48 0
CDI 0 265 98 211 284 474 271 0
VCDI 0 258 127 592 1168 5297 31679 56962
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-02-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65318 17763 449 611 196 68 31 0
OW 52 819 201 436 200 44 8 0
VODI 0 485 169 461 340 132 21 0
ODI 0 278 71 315 386 255 53 0
CDI 0 238 71 270 373 522 235 16
VCDI 0 277 135 513 1222 5228 31086 57700
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-02-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63962 19222 660 632 206 37 26 0
OW 52 416 207 438 208 38 9 0
VODI 0 267 109 568 535 126 7 0
ODI 0 141 71 202 635 319 48 0
CDI 0 59 31 179 645 974 413 25
VCDI 0 84 65 269 1285 6478 28297 59103
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65916 16977 447 711 383 91 64 0
OW 53 455 158 333 281 57 14 0
VODI 0 253 90 299 519 185 42 0
ODI 0 155 52 172 442 304 137 0
CDI 0 113 72 213 693 674 433 9
VCDI 0 101 79 292 1320 5913 31881 56665
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65916 17065 468 720 402 88 57 0
OW 53 364 141 324 284 61 21 0
VODI 0 251 83 300 494 161 44 0
ODI 0 154 49 164 427 317 125 0
CDI 0 120 74 207 670 645 430 10
VCDI 0 100 83 305 1361 5952 31894 56664

Date: 2024-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66385 16530 361 690 279 126 59 0
OW 53 659 147 322 166 92 24 0
VODI 0 409 137 414 304 166 71 0
ODI 0 238 55 306 398 245 136 0
CDI 0 189 83 179 507 429 378 0
VCDI 0 137 101 377 1183 5395 30366 58952
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66385 16639 391 728 293 140 57 0
OW 53 578 132 337 161 75 26 0
VODI 0 381 118 365 275 157 72 0
ODI 0 226 61 289 375 227 122 0
CDI 0 191 78 185 466 436 355 0
VCDI 0 147 104 384 1267 5418 30402 58952

Date: 2024-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65488 17497 371 641 303 158 81 0
OW 62 667 199 384 167 69 13 0
VODI 0 350 101 561 457 177 41 0
ODI 0 112 50 226 639 363 89 4
CDI 0 105 37 145 578 1300 534 4
VCDI 0 178 50 172 741 5991 30504 57439
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 42984 11420 277 502 292 141 51 0
OW 39 320 72 190 127 87 20 0
VODI 0 203 66 211 240 145 59 0
ODI 22527 6541 291 879 1250 2983 10877 19660
CDI 0 136 30 100 233 382 221 15
VCDI 0 289 72 247 743 4320 20034 37772

Date: 2024-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64904 17680 387 702 429 178 67 0
OW 52 644 171 377 228 77 13 0
VODI 0 393 107 506 422 200 39 0
ODI 0 243 72 220 461 348 109 0
CDI 0 175 63 168 455 859 556 37
VCDI 0 165 79 266 765 6643 34268 53520
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 34936 9257 296 586 442 1044 6217 3196
OW 179 239 48 139 122 95 15 75
VODI 151 169 29 169 213 128 63 184
ODI 17799 5305 247 762 997 2570 9526 17015
CDI 285 116 40 91 171 271 243 267
VCDI 11606 4214 219 492 815 4197 18988 32820

Date: 2024-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66009 17183 423 558 245 169 65 0
OW 53 923 138 388 164 72 1 0
VODI 0 532 160 382 374 167 29 0
ODI 0 288 78 184 503 265 95 0
CDI 0 172 78 240 459 695 440 9
VCDI 0 273 91 378 1240 7991 32170 53364
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 35542 9044 298 458 337 1384 6474 2486
OW 163 302 51 137 93 59 16 76
VODI 157 245 70 165 177 83 31 177
ODI 18107 5362 317 764 1075 2576 8776 17222
CDI 284 154 29 103 250 242 158 292
VCDI 11809 4264 203 503 1053 5015 17345 33120


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