Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-01-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70974 15664 498 309 135 110 115 0
OW 127 629 118 259 180 47 15 0
VODI 1 420 106 212 382 191 29 0
ODI 1 219 84 210 455 262 18 0
CDI 0 111 76 229 599 697 142 4
VCDI 0 114 70 381 1035 7600 33900 50320
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67939 17868 542 452 298 109 83 0
OW 54 554 144 192 215 88 10 0
VODI 0 327 99 221 292 213 19 0
ODI 0 144 56 164 364 345 20 0
CDI 0 91 59 197 524 831 223 0
VCDI 0 101 53 332 1153 7972 35353 49347
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70049 16541 450 384 196 48 104 0
OW 75 389 137 249 162 60 8 0
VODI 0 169 129 279 285 175 15 0
ODI 0 30 47 202 286 266 16 0
CDI 0 3 12 139 507 810 124 12
VCDI 0 1 5 184 956 7968 32969 52607
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70560 15748 341 433 232 75 34 0
OW 60 405 141 234 199 52 8 0
VODI 0 175 111 238 266 171 25 0
ODI 0 73 37 157 259 271 38 0
CDI 0 28 22 136 386 713 139 48
VCDI 0 12 23 166 822 6648 34594 52968
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70544 15786 353 435 230 77 34 0
OW 76 370 140 232 193 54 7 0
VODI 0 177 97 242 261 164 18 0
ODI 0 67 39 145 267 264 45 0
CDI 0 29 22 136 395 738 162 39
VCDI 0 12 24 174 818 6633 34572 52977

Date: 2024-01-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69976 15633 382 529 308 105 105 0
OW 61 560 113 226 222 54 23 0
VODI 1 286 98 229 261 171 25 0
ODI 0 84 78 224 259 231 44 0
CDI 0 34 52 227 559 708 150 8
VCDI 0 18 25 229 1365 7810 35160 50415
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69976 15648 380 513 313 99 103 0
OW 61 563 125 234 220 53 23 0
VODI 1 264 94 252 261 152 21 0
ODI 0 92 74 218 285 237 40 0
CDI 0 28 50 234 522 729 196 11
VCDI 0 20 25 213 1373 7809 35124 50412

Date: 2024-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69347 16453 393 503 255 99 103 0
OW 61 458 193 309 140 49 2 0
VODI 0 169 109 402 291 82 12 0
ODI 0 50 57 216 426 228 19 0
CDI 0 30 28 205 601 1023 130 4
VCDI 0 9 33 258 1377 7369 32954 52601
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69341 15717 373 481 308 142 104 0
OW 66 802 112 260 135 56 8 0
VODI 1 399 131 223 193 176 44 0
ODI 0 133 80 227 249 240 52 0
CDI 0 75 54 273 623 795 159 9
VCDI 0 43 63 429 1582 7441 32853 52596

Date: 2024-01-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70205 15072 414 477 252 119 48 0
OW 61 546 181 283 158 51 1 0
VODI 0 288 106 300 295 157 15 0
ODI 0 153 48 171 254 193 64 0
CDI 0 116 43 179 455 612 135 6
VCDI 0 79 94 411 1382 8785 32204 52635
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70203 14619 351 452 305 155 48 0
OW 63 798 220 266 133 70 5 0
VODI 0 372 103 314 291 131 18 0
ODI 0 171 55 162 224 199 72 0
CDI 0 152 35 144 407 743 265 31
VCDI 0 142 122 483 1436 8619 32059 52610

Date: 2024-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70425 15020 328 417 194 136 47 0
OW 61 618 132 192 140 49 16 0
VODI 0 397 131 273 168 117 39 0
ODI 0 206 47 141 224 198 50 0
CDI 0 161 66 118 383 605 220 11
VCDI 0 274 90 390 1192 6735 33375 53662
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70421 14016 295 400 227 167 67 0
OW 65 898 99 124 102 67 19 0
VODI 0 862 167 247 136 94 32 0
ODI 0 330 82 217 198 152 22 0
CDI 0 204 47 137 314 514 196 2
VCDI 0 366 104 406 1324 6846 33411 53671


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