Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-01-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75770 12640 238 266 105 106 239 0
OW 75 1076 154 222 108 29 38 0
VODI 0 577 177 377 358 124 33 0
ODI 0 204 88 300 700 272 42 0
CDI 0 131 52 187 696 1018 236 0
VCDI 0 167 98 300 1151 7837 29230 51627
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74868 12963 220 281 154 134 200 0
OW 77 1161 115 200 103 17 41 0
VODI 3 853 193 274 226 101 34 0
ODI 1 306 123 293 431 182 48 0
CDI 1 182 82 239 581 760 153 51
VCDI 0 197 115 444 1267 7372 27688 54314
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73822 14559 272 230 94 106 119 0
OW 82 766 162 242 107 15 28 0
VODI 2 378 170 501 291 44 40 0
ODI 2 145 89 379 365 163 36 0
CDI 0 50 58 241 645 1131 148 1
VCDI 0 57 57 305 1203 7532 32957 49454
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73408 13964 294 314 136 118 97 0
OW 98 624 125 250 171 26 24 0
VODI 0 436 108 301 396 80 28 0
ODI 0 222 84 295 473 155 29 0
CDI 0 106 79 293 572 728 169 0
VCDI 0 118 52 405 1102 8117 36048 47003
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73400 14042 307 361 200 127 96 0
OW 105 544 120 230 130 23 22 0
VODI 1 432 97 282 354 77 28 0
ODI 0 224 86 270 455 139 29 0
CDI 0 105 79 288 568 795 176 0
VCDI 0 123 53 427 1143 8063 36044 47003

Date: 2024-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71411 14715 366 452 213 101 152 0
OW 74 665 126 208 256 39 24 0
VODI 0 372 81 210 342 181 39 0
ODI 0 202 74 128 434 334 28 0
CDI 0 108 84 196 490 924 209 2
VCDI 0 116 71 345 1083 7968 33630 50595
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71411 14873 383 497 294 116 148 0
OW 74 522 108 156 226 52 23 0
VODI 0 353 79 206 317 170 39 0
ODI 0 203 79 124 374 319 30 0
CDI 0 115 89 197 479 911 210 1
VCDI 0 112 64 359 1128 7979 33632 50596

Date: 2024-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69814 16783 492 395 184 80 74 0
OW 74 394 132 260 163 43 2 0
VODI 0 153 110 280 354 129 3 0
ODI 0 20 58 182 442 320 21 0
CDI 0 21 19 149 541 1356 166 0
VCDI 0 40 19 159 969 7415 33515 51717
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69828 16149 446 407 306 157 78 0
OW 60 589 95 136 131 92 2 0
VODI 0 399 104 212 223 176 27 0
ODI 0 159 73 169 240 254 30 0
CDI 0 60 70 185 447 754 135 0
VCDI 0 55 42 316 1306 7910 33509 51717

Date: 2024-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70629 15666 394 504 229 80 73 0
OW 78 408 134 208 199 78 8 0
VODI 2 198 125 238 220 196 48 0
ODI 0 50 53 181 244 266 38 0
CDI 0 17 33 118 376 625 179 5
VCDI 0 8 13 121 1072 7309 34927 51698
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70644 15183 305 414 280 171 87 0
OW 61 563 114 165 122 90 18 0
VODI 4 384 146 201 172 210 45 0
ODI 0 153 100 183 161 228 79 0
CDI 0 57 67 207 389 700 235 0
VCDI 0 7 20 200 1216 7155 34809 51703

Date: 2024-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70717 15283 354 482 228 91 92 0
OW 60 513 126 192 184 74 10 0
VODI 0 208 135 224 257 184 42 0
ODI 0 56 49 230 257 243 49 0
CDI 0 20 22 180 542 648 157 6
VCDI 0 14 24 153 1191 6176 36468 51107
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70717 14654 340 511 330 206 111 0
OW 60 714 88 143 188 120 41 0
VODI 0 452 111 187 211 237 60 0
ODI 0 171 81 188 211 273 73 1
CDI 0 74 62 208 474 839 325 32
VCDI 0 29 28 224 1245 5741 36208 51080


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