Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2023-12-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78452 11181 287 378 222 205 194 0
OW 56 377 121 284 180 69 17 0
VODI 0 179 80 291 326 159 33 0
ODI 0 83 37 166 247 162 37 0
CDI 0 52 35 129 320 310 103 0
VCDI 0 65 39 109 262 3144 8883 1826
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78501 10905 247 324 235 205 248 0
OW 61 520 106 209 125 73 26 0
VODI 0 275 81 240 290 159 46 0
ODI 0 129 30 141 255 133 49 0
CDI 0 96 41 93 185 340 106 0
VCDI 0 109 53 166 352 3122 8104 2720
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78126 10939 290 407 189 234 246 0
OW 61 333 124 287 124 66 11 0
VODI 0 181 79 327 273 130 10 0
ODI 0 79 35 135 360 143 14 0
CDI 0 54 36 143 332 497 103 0
VCDI 0 21 19 91 374 3067 7956 3204
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76334 11904 351 393 200 203 276 0
OW 62 305 90 285 190 63 22 0
VODI 0 180 61 208 402 109 26 0
ODI 0 71 42 84 346 166 16 0
CDI 0 75 25 77 265 406 84 0
VCDI 0 30 48 158 498 4064 7929 3052
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76334 11912 349 419 213 215 281 0
OW 62 295 97 262 189 62 20 0
VODI 0 177 56 197 431 112 25 0
ODI 0 69 38 93 340 196 16 0
CDI 0 76 29 74 248 395 78 0
VCDI 0 36 48 160 480 4031 7933 3052

Date: 2023-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75733 12113 338 384 237 181 220 0
OW 67 383 61 182 211 55 22 0
VODI 1 227 73 161 318 142 13 0
ODI 0 103 32 94 269 182 11 0
CDI 0 68 22 61 233 405 44 0
VCDI 0 85 44 198 489 4107 8228 3303
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75727 12178 340 389 251 197 217 0
OW 74 326 67 194 204 49 25 0
VODI 0 216 65 146 349 140 15 0
ODI 0 98 30 93 270 214 9 0
CDI 0 72 23 59 224 417 42 0
VCDI 0 89 45 199 459 4055 8230 3303

Date: 2023-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76108 12082 246 267 131 200 175 0
OW 65 325 122 224 115 31 9 0
VODI 2 157 70 226 284 109 19 0
ODI 1 86 21 109 256 246 37 0
CDI 0 74 46 92 200 653 112 0
VCDI 0 6 16 77 271 3371 8172 4287
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76102 11698 258 304 176 251 200 0
OW 73 400 75 186 127 57 27 0
VODI 1 269 77 175 203 182 47 0
ODI 0 120 28 105 227 227 28 0
CDI 0 104 18 64 151 369 46 0
VCDI 0 139 65 161 373 3524 8176 4287

Date: 2023-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74783 13395 168 211 118 147 189 0
OW 70 561 107 127 72 13 24 0
VODI 2 329 133 194 153 43 18 0
ODI 2 132 42 189 202 82 23 0
CDI 0 77 45 132 279 238 43 0
VCDI 0 25 37 161 691 4222 7916 3705
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74765 12901 156 199 162 172 246 0
OW 91 635 67 96 54 47 20 0
VODI 1 540 108 133 121 98 19 0
ODI 0 239 89 207 160 85 13 0
CDI 0 142 49 146 236 151 24 0
VCDI 0 62 63 233 782 4192 7891 3705

Date: 2023-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75759 12033 224 242 105 106 239 0
OW 75 595 99 161 69 18 38 0
VODI 0 363 107 203 156 53 30 0
ODI 0 153 56 168 207 74 30 0
CDI 0 92 33 136 265 242 104 0
VCDI 0 79 43 173 738 3782 8478 3572
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75726 11477 199 240 134 130 304 0
OW 107 641 78 116 45 49 47 0
VODI 1 598 80 157 113 77 63 0
ODI 0 287 83 149 162 78 44 0
CDI 0 189 55 181 255 180 70 2
VCDI 0 123 67 240 831 3761 8391 3570


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