Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-12-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84588 15447 580 825 489 445 51 0
OW 139 1403 362 625 219 68 10 0
VODI 0 481 230 686 520 235 45 0
ODI 0 126 83 375 694 562 67 0
CDI 0 24 43 178 535 1534 348 8
VCDI 0 23 17 89 555 6018 33138 35183
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82436 15077 636 1044 476 399 23 0
OW 122 1975 404 1013 377 78 9 0
VODI 4 506 208 717 632 321 29 0
ODI 0 157 72 331 713 642 53 0
CDI 0 73 58 201 497 1337 426 8
VCDI 0 24 25 108 660 5371 30125 39681
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81409 17394 765 1303 516 255 34 16
OW 266 684 242 580 324 53 7 8
VODI 16 219 197 638 687 220 14 7
ODI 0 51 55 332 801 491 47 2
CDI 0 16 12 147 758 1662 376 7
VCDI 0 9 7 48 268 4232 32279 39594
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80246 17355 687 1082 453 310 98 13
OW 132 1190 289 656 320 88 15 8
VODI 2 505 192 598 562 314 22 4
ODI 0 141 90 392 583 482 53 0
CDI 0 35 26 184 561 1472 303 0
VCDI 0 31 17 61 372 4131 30365 42608
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80212 17286 684 1203 492 316 101 14
OW 145 1151 288 507 264 75 12 6
VODI 23 571 175 545 571 278 17 5
ODI 0 176 102 430 531 498 45 0
CDI 0 45 35 223 568 1383 322 1
VCDI 0 28 17 65 425 4247 30359 42607

Date: 2023-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80166 15271 536 844 685 465 203 7
OW 74 1462 233 757 731 166 21 13
VODI 40 807 285 586 590 505 24 3
ODI 12 144 64 344 387 748 22 2
CDI 0 35 31 166 395 1590 245 0
VCDI 0 73 23 81 305 3521 27167 47219
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80171 15368 528 895 896 490 207 8
OW 72 1180 220 653 499 159 16 11
VODI 31 916 291 601 523 442 22 4
ODI 18 225 78 330 432 704 19 2
CDI 0 38 28 196 438 1557 249 2
VCDI 0 65 27 103 305 3643 27169 47217

Date: 2023-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78380 17088 687 781 315 271 260 0
OW 72 1042 357 735 282 25 9 0
VODI 3 376 242 854 770 116 19 0
ODI 0 66 67 408 1449 569 32 0
CDI 0 27 30 160 623 2158 374 4
VCDI 0 59 26 129 300 3637 27204 47042
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78395 15771 615 908 495 379 288 0
OW 60 1312 225 514 527 118 29 0
VODI 0 969 274 712 1000 410 51 0
ODI 0 286 114 324 631 503 71 0
CDI 0 163 89 301 550 1154 285 5
VCDI 0 157 92 308 536 4212 27174 47041

Date: 2023-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78158 15139 556 985 481 345 119 0
OW 52 1057 265 665 550 120 18 0
VODI 0 664 202 540 954 270 23 0
ODI 0 208 110 429 680 546 33 0
CDI 0 82 60 302 669 1710 137 4
VCDI 0 93 59 240 767 6347 26917 46492
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78158 14689 470 790 675 519 158 0
OW 52 1006 215 572 453 227 15 2
VODI 0 822 262 709 911 718 17 17
ODI 0 417 111 414 628 886 52 3
CDI 0 167 118 301 503 1047 174 3
VCDI 0 142 76 375 931 5941 26831 46471

Date: 2023-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78778 13883 500 771 563 223 194 0
OW 56 1061 283 534 626 193 17 0
VODI 0 616 218 596 872 460 34 0
ODI 0 205 101 386 648 547 40 0
CDI 0 158 73 288 768 1197 165 2
VCDI 0 159 78 282 1088 7946 24252 48187
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78751 13364 417 604 663 397 223 0
OW 83 1114 212 419 461 234 35 0
VODI 0 746 254 597 656 533 46 15
ODI 0 382 167 417 711 856 67 7
CDI 0 278 98 384 772 1015 144 7
VCDI 0 198 105 436 1302 7531 24187 48160


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