Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-11-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100279 13986 582 727 739 300 30 0
OW 44 632 216 438 519 343 33 0
VODI 0 293 133 396 672 384 34 0
ODI 0 88 64 271 724 722 100 0
CDI 0 4 19 193 886 1373 527 4
VCDI 0 0 1 30 983 5856 25249 29174
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98884 13785 559 729 510 218 13 0
OW 55 928 249 574 427 416 12 0
VODI 1 324 144 365 549 693 39 0
ODI 0 89 79 260 527 659 62 0
CDI 0 24 35 178 683 1280 308 9
VCDI 0 3 6 75 438 7994 25981 28884
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96518 15506 473 787 376 138 10 0
OW 106 780 257 502 294 129 1 0
VODI 8 268 194 553 457 230 1 0
ODI 0 28 65 299 613 359 17 0
CDI 0 2 9 130 521 1474 263 2
VCDI 0 0 0 30 274 6569 30608 28197
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95999 13343 774 684 574 287 16 0
OW 97 907 335 624 421 183 3 0
VODI 14 440 175 492 763 388 6 0
ODI 2 101 83 269 507 448 24 0
CDI 0 17 22 158 462 965 223 0
VCDI 0 13 14 59 296 5876 30192 30792
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95982 13375 786 789 704 369 16 0
OW 106 769 246 486 328 160 5 0
VODI 22 523 234 461 671 346 7 0
ODI 2 118 88 279 493 409 27 0
CDI 0 21 39 201 456 809 211 0
VCDI 0 15 10 70 371 6054 30198 30792

Date: 2023-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94051 14376 370 596 401 234 26 0
OW 162 1146 370 522 411 193 17 0
VODI 40 551 217 589 756 374 32 0
ODI 7 139 113 321 494 553 55 0
CDI 0 14 24 198 405 941 288 7
VCDI 0 9 10 43 417 4973 28977 33626
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94039 14513 439 729 597 328 31 0
OW 150 952 266 365 296 141 19 0
VODI 62 590 241 522 695 354 29 0
ODI 9 142 126 423 425 513 50 0
CDI 0 28 21 191 464 869 293 6
VCDI 0 10 11 39 407 5063 28973 33627

Date: 2023-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93902 14799 407 606 269 128 4 0
OW 114 666 235 475 166 27 2 0
VODI 15 212 184 811 780 134 2 0
ODI 5 23 26 485 1137 705 8 0
CDI 0 17 13 85 452 1659 164 0
VCDI 0 5 4 31 305 6457 32717 28812
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93689 13596 346 602 463 192 6 0
OW 259 1089 197 541 358 212 6 0
VODI 66 601 178 593 704 417 15 0
ODI 20 279 82 341 591 660 32 0
CDI 2 100 44 323 445 853 144 0
VCDI 0 57 22 93 548 6776 32694 28812

Date: 2023-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92100 14574 451 750 646 108 4 0
OW 114 497 165 417 575 24 3 0
VODI 11 249 136 509 843 143 6 0
ODI 2 50 62 293 1185 645 15 0
CDI 0 4 9 112 824 1457 153 28
VCDI 0 1 2 26 383 6549 31864 31059
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91933 13726 349 616 492 162 7 0
OW 245 978 176 400 706 143 4 0
VODI 43 459 187 518 1076 452 15 0
ODI 5 152 73 248 963 833 46 0
CDI 1 56 35 250 758 1072 193 15
VCDI 0 4 5 75 461 6264 31780 31072

Date: 2023-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90377 14790 468 892 450 186 12 0
OW 106 517 111 367 669 80 8 0
VODI 16 219 102 417 1088 230 31 0
ODI 4 51 36 165 826 513 71 0
CDI 0 21 22 97 777 1674 349 3
VCDI 0 15 5 36 503 5943 32122 32679
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90313 14023 370 617 492 241 25 0
OW 139 1005 172 560 464 123 24 0
VODI 30 417 113 465 1198 440 66 0
ODI 12 85 41 153 1038 855 127 0
CDI 6 59 30 114 691 1395 272 45
VCDI 3 24 18 65 430 5572 32079 32637


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