Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-10-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13968 6993 339 558 337 57 0 0
OW 6 276 78 246 369 182 1 0
VODI 0 67 58 153 541 326 10 0
ODI 0 0 4 34 223 460 62 0
CDI 0 0 2 7 126 899 166 0
VCDI 0 1 3 7 82 3032 11082 5111
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13494 6609 270 427 266 181 32 0
OW 25 405 129 374 252 63 37 0
VODI 0 66 47 320 529 181 60 0
ODI 0 12 7 81 331 302 69 0
CDI 0 3 4 13 247 498 113 0
VCDI 0 1 1 8 209 3906 11772 4522
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13666 6837 299 457 139 1 0 0
OW 2 187 111 342 240 7 0 0
VODI 0 47 78 264 608 55 0 0
ODI 0 10 16 95 527 276 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 5 316 914 14 0
VCDI 0 1 0 4 122 3391 9081 7752
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13503 6364 318 398 89 0 0 0
OW 3 305 123 427 248 9 0 0
VODI 0 65 66 314 482 203 0 0
ODI 0 4 6 107 393 434 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 264 1004 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 380 4266 9448 6577
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13501 6282 313 529 161 1 0 0
OW 5 371 120 306 235 28 0 0
VODI 0 80 74 306 437 211 0 0
ODI 0 5 6 107 377 416 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 276 928 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 370 4332 9471 6577

Date: 2023-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12337 6300 357 593 246 14 0 0
OW 4 301 167 517 303 44 0 0
VODI 0 31 43 287 540 312 2 0
ODI 0 2 4 47 302 601 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 157 1046 139 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 81 4858 8130 8068
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12337 6263 398 739 298 20 0 0
OW 4 312 110 372 286 66 0 0
VODI 0 58 60 296 517 302 2 0
ODI 0 1 3 42 325 542 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 120 886 130 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 83 5059 8146 8068

Date: 2023-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11013 6435 326 518 398 28 0 0
OW 8 166 152 394 216 29 0 0
VODI 0 22 37 367 512 74 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 59 882 419 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 216 1486 197 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 3077 10801 8011
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11011 6318 416 811 651 75 0 0
OW 10 221 71 319 397 111 0 0
VODI 0 84 31 187 671 430 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 266 566 74 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 193 603 332 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 65 3328 10591 8011

Date: 2023-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10714 5558 297 535 463 208 7 0
OW 16 212 113 347 343 154 9 0
VODI 0 84 36 163 610 304 13 0
ODI 0 26 14 63 318 451 26 0
CDI 0 0 4 19 338 956 151 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 1481 8487 13284
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10713 5291 282 606 738 345 21 0
OW 14 526 123 275 383 223 19 0
VODI 3 63 58 232 572 505 59 0
ODI 0 0 1 13 219 611 109 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 140 597 376 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 82 1273 8109 13284

Date: 2023-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9713 5550 314 392 542 133 2 0
OW 26 358 142 308 394 312 12 0
VODI 0 136 69 183 433 307 13 0
ODI 0 38 25 133 386 375 55 0
CDI 0 1 3 88 345 507 131 0
VCDI 0 0 1 21 290 1690 8246 14192
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9684 5532 311 411 838 408 14 0
OW 50 422 160 263 317 288 26 0
VODI 5 123 75 302 581 552 66 0
ODI 0 6 7 81 275 443 153 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 165 401 313 0
VCDI 0 0 1 19 214 1232 7887 14192


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