Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-09-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124413 22065 688 603 19 0 0 0
OW 0 1110 476 751 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 297 433 2424 733 8 0 0
ODI 0 41 108 2251 5974 1347 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 380 4096 10680 452 0
VCDI 0 2 1 4 64 7144 424 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126949 19418 569 647 34 0 0 0
OW 0 1361 465 738 98 0 0 0
VODI 0 459 444 2090 863 35 0 0
ODI 0 80 110 1880 6290 737 3 0
CDI 0 6 12 476 5178 7666 105 0
VCDI 0 0 1 3 177 9120 1034 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127177 20493 757 890 53 0 0 0
OW 0 751 430 763 154 2 0 0
VODI 0 209 345 2435 983 63 0 0
ODI 0 16 31 1377 8247 1201 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 2305 10830 588 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 28 6069 835 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127930 19632 550 717 244 4 0 0
OW 0 1066 435 761 217 12 0 0
VODI 0 304 362 1976 969 81 0 0
ODI 0 36 61 1394 7121 1493 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 147 3298 7869 1183 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 44 7075 2032 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127930 19989 633 820 301 15 0 0
OW 0 734 358 693 211 8 0 0
VODI 0 288 366 1932 1017 72 0 0
ODI 0 27 49 1398 7568 1543 15 0
CDI 0 0 2 152 2758 8315 1319 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 38 6581 1912 0

Date: 2023-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128991 18454 481 602 187 2 0 0
OW 0 1348 454 734 174 4 0 0
VODI 0 406 380 1906 780 52 0 0
ODI 0 47 96 1436 5801 1757 53 0
CDI 0 0 4 305 3056 8526 773 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 41 6368 3820 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128991 18979 570 701 250 2 0 0
OW 0 853 350 701 167 2 0 0
VODI 0 384 409 1871 795 38 0 0
ODI 0 38 81 1400 6146 1780 49 0
CDI 0 1 5 313 2646 8854 982 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 35 6033 3615 0

Date: 2023-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129116 18715 632 648 174 1 0 0
OW 1 779 464 640 114 4 0 0
VODI 0 166 343 2270 582 14 0 0
ODI 0 4 11 918 5108 475 12 0
CDI 0 3 3 45 2723 12409 185 0
VCDI 0 1 0 6 10 5989 4483 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129117 18035 596 693 304 8 0 0
OW 0 1093 367 570 172 3 0 0
VODI 0 483 403 1836 753 53 7 0
ODI 0 54 82 1059 4659 1943 68 0
CDI 0 2 5 361 2782 10480 636 0
VCDI 0 1 0 8 41 6405 3969 0

Date: 2023-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128729 18716 742 719 149 2 0 0
OW 0 794 411 739 162 4 0 0
VODI 0 201 279 1865 678 43 0 0
ODI 0 10 26 852 4099 735 11 0
CDI 0 5 4 96 3509 11495 596 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 8 7764 3600 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128729 17639 622 712 247 2 0 0
OW 0 1346 318 548 179 2 0 0
VODI 0 658 421 1675 717 69 0 0
ODI 0 79 96 1006 3815 1267 24 0
CDI 0 4 5 330 3636 10885 1047 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 11 7818 3136 0

Date: 2023-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128710 17919 555 637 225 8 0 0
OW 0 1230 405 712 344 87 0 0
VODI 0 267 287 1348 757 298 0 0
ODI 0 42 62 943 3078 899 62 0
CDI 0 8 3 191 1957 11886 1162 0
VCDI 0 3 1 7 46 6379 6530 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128710 17183 526 692 262 10 0 0
OW 0 1287 251 527 252 10 0 0
VODI 0 802 375 1096 963 299 0 0
ODI 0 180 147 1026 2327 1445 67 0
CDI 0 15 13 490 2555 11750 1605 0
VCDI 0 2 1 7 48 6043 6082 0


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