Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-08-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111675 24974 1228 1140 95 0 0 0
OW 4 1471 822 1667 216 7 0 0
VODI 0 595 707 4556 1044 58 0 0
ODI 0 27 42 1828 7424 1189 16 0
CDI 0 1 7 118 5464 10187 789 5
VCDI 0 4 0 0 12 2950 6119 607
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114459 22798 1160 1076 58 0 0 0
OW 5 1820 827 1406 216 4 0 0
VODI 0 681 802 4014 1391 63 0 0
ODI 0 38 58 1687 6287 2308 90 0
CDI 0 3 4 180 3439 10028 3201 0
VCDI 0 4 1 3 9 1284 6799 845
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115284 24604 1653 1327 74 0 0 0
OW 1 803 782 1316 117 0 0 0
VODI 0 172 483 4048 1072 28 0 0
ODI 0 17 26 955 6680 1008 1 0
CDI 0 3 6 80 2779 11646 1595 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 3 2232 7412 837
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115895 24830 1403 1356 133 0 0 0
OW 0 994 814 1414 139 12 0 0
VODI 0 207 453 3285 1103 75 0 0
ODI 0 24 27 1396 5726 946 13 0
CDI 0 1 9 121 3341 12158 1859 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 0 3681 5629 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115895 24970 1474 1441 149 0 0 0
OW 0 818 700 1248 146 11 0 0
VODI 0 236 488 3282 1049 63 0 0
ODI 0 28 30 1471 5660 968 10 0
CDI 0 4 14 130 3438 12162 1962 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 0 3668 5529 0

Date: 2023-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115371 26059 1287 1202 115 0 0 0
OW 2 1193 872 1363 132 6 0 0
VODI 0 227 426 2951 1228 60 0 0
ODI 0 33 53 1325 5530 928 3 0
CDI 0 6 12 143 4376 12096 1255 0
VCDI 0 2 0 0 41 5799 2952 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115371 26237 1405 1325 111 0 0 0
OW 2 937 662 1151 135 5 0 0
VODI 0 294 502 2921 1187 55 0 0
ODI 0 42 64 1428 5409 961 4 0
CDI 0 6 17 159 4514 12025 1294 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 66 5843 2912 0

Date: 2023-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114730 19426 10049 956 64 1 0 0
OW 0 447 1262 834 70 1 0 0
VODI 0 123 1539 2666 679 1 0 0
ODI 0 12 1300 2076 6349 730 0 0
CDI 0 9 556 2622 4764 8478 301 0
VCDI 0 1 0 184 719 2808 3291 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114730 19193 9784 1071 87 2 0 0
OW 0 556 1192 1006 125 0 0 0
VODI 0 191 1546 2008 1143 79 0 0
ODI 0 61 1352 1976 3607 581 0 0
CDI 0 13 817 2248 5828 7742 1352 0
VCDI 0 4 15 1029 1855 3615 2240 0

Date: 2023-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117995 25638 1329 842 68 0 0 0
OW 0 952 704 870 76 1 0 0
VODI 0 187 505 3222 722 7 0 0
ODI 0 7 32 1918 7512 579 7 0
CDI 0 6 4 131 5409 10932 423 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 98 4317 2554 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117995 24785 1283 990 110 1 0 0
OW 0 1220 525 937 110 2 0 0
VODI 0 687 596 2524 1190 88 9 0
ODI 0 86 145 2143 4266 708 33 0
CDI 0 10 25 389 7413 8665 828 0
VCDI 0 3 0 0 796 6372 2114 0

Date: 2023-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106511 18839 20078 515 77 0 0 0
OW 0 407 1788 545 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 160 2039 1674 674 10 0 0
ODI 0 34 1869 1651 5212 846 0 0
CDI 0 1 2737 1360 5312 7318 201 0
VCDI 0 0 4053 1859 409 696 100 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106511 18431 19453 680 132 0 0 0
OW 0 675 1466 583 103 1 0 0
VODI 0 229 2547 1284 944 51 0 0
ODI 0 69 2176 1331 2947 665 0 0
CDI 0 37 3219 1411 5604 6350 201 0
VCDI 0 0 3703 2315 2027 1803 100 0


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