Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-06-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72148 16234 721 1210 452 141 32 0
OW 59 600 252 657 409 87 37 0
VODI 0 336 178 708 912 284 63 0
ODI 0 224 104 445 1185 777 263 0
CDI 0 323 129 579 1930 4332 2226 3
VCDI 0 167 105 400 1128 12085 47158 17965
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72350 16225 722 1354 532 145 35 0
OW 56 549 255 742 513 123 17 0
VODI 0 345 148 756 999 353 87 0
ODI 0 284 120 410 1085 953 371 0
CDI 0 410 174 567 1870 3892 3452 0
VCDI 0 247 146 535 1229 11039 54367 9591
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73135 16369 752 1369 469 92 34 0
OW 51 592 287 968 514 52 8 0
VODI 0 340 185 886 1425 354 31 0
ODI 0 220 106 480 1768 1389 143 0
CDI 0 241 132 577 2450 7795 2496 4
VCDI 0 57 64 323 960 8498 53699 7733
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73240 17042 890 1536 492 58 0 0
OW 50 527 267 896 780 233 22 0
VODI 0 382 172 704 1101 607 206 0
ODI 0 217 89 506 1465 1232 741 1
CDI 0 265 114 407 1797 5575 5219 2
VCDI 0 116 83 326 786 10397 51181 7324
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73240 17122 931 1667 600 83 0 0
OW 50 484 229 763 678 206 14 0
VODI 0 354 168 705 1103 627 208 0
ODI 0 211 88 510 1447 1157 705 1
CDI 0 265 115 405 1793 5555 5334 2
VCDI 0 113 84 325 800 10474 51108 7324

Date: 2023-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73462 16876 1035 1860 737 93 24 0
OW 50 535 214 908 888 173 29 0
VODI 0 377 180 797 1420 510 116 0
ODI 0 253 125 621 1770 1507 436 0
CDI 0 267 125 626 2835 4694 4685 5
VCDI 0 106 87 304 693 7884 49567 10174
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73462 16967 1058 1970 819 111 20 0
OW 50 454 193 745 787 140 37 0
VODI 0 358 175 852 1440 498 116 0
ODI 0 260 130 603 1712 1441 475 0
CDI 0 267 125 633 2842 4756 4789 5
VCDI 0 108 85 313 743 7915 49420 10174

Date: 2023-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72707 18442 1029 1612 638 97 3 0
OW 50 664 317 835 477 120 1 0
VODI 0 329 243 1108 1174 281 9 0
ODI 0 200 127 592 2805 1360 143 0
CDI 0 123 122 414 2009 6500 3015 9
VCDI 0 4 11 146 408 7763 52547 8614
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72712 18190 1097 2033 1010 274 4 0
OW 45 544 196 668 700 321 54 0
VODI 0 375 201 703 1421 846 319 0
ODI 0 242 110 463 1666 1434 1398 0
CDI 0 303 166 546 1954 4972 4146 0
VCDI 0 108 79 294 760 8274 49797 8623

Date: 2023-06-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75301 16567 1088 1950 767 68 0 0
OW 44 529 273 885 650 78 1 0
VODI 0 312 169 956 1720 356 30 0
ODI 0 193 124 629 2304 1519 189 0
CDI 0 211 162 1258 2650 5817 3251 0
VCDI 0 34 37 401 564 9099 49661 7201
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75302 15956 1064 2246 1331 162 1 0
OW 43 590 173 660 1058 282 38 0
VODI 0 450 187 840 1732 782 195 0
ODI 0 285 147 1007 1793 1662 582 0
CDI 0 390 192 918 2043 4809 3858 0
VCDI 0 175 90 408 698 9240 48458 7201

Date: 2023-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75124 17181 1089 2229 704 68 1 0
OW 42 582 310 1094 786 77 2 0
VODI 0 369 192 1211 2052 363 41 0
ODI 0 258 120 606 2259 1404 179 0
CDI 0 212 125 520 3274 6573 2520 0
VCDI 0 73 48 167 859 9015 48776 6543
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75125 16537 1068 2618 1492 154 6 0
OW 41 610 225 848 1240 253 29 0
VODI 0 452 173 879 1980 850 128 0
ODI 0 380 134 518 2233 2353 281 0
CDI 0 496 204 714 2009 4786 3393 37
VCDI 0 200 80 250 980 9104 47682 6506


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