Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-05-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70987 16064 438 632 296 89 9 0
OW 62 437 232 511 348 99 22 0
VODI 0 319 159 567 717 294 130 0
ODI 0 109 91 366 880 579 282 0
CDI 0 100 74 363 1388 3491 2357 0
VCDI 0 34 42 257 1140 9284 48171 25628
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70882 16036 544 871 465 117 70 0
OW 57 594 164 516 443 135 43 0
VODI 0 423 202 481 734 301 118 0
ODI 0 129 83 433 820 644 259 0
CDI 0 113 79 390 1866 2989 2032 3
VCDI 0 27 47 334 1650 10383 47108 24463
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71334 16391 619 1062 448 117 26 0
OW 52 519 248 713 343 87 43 0
VODI 0 241 187 788 870 159 53 0
ODI 0 124 97 462 1462 598 137 0
CDI 0 113 78 503 2092 4060 1589 40
VCDI 0 33 37 271 1078 7452 47330 25192
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71604 16597 727 1165 406 113 46 0
OW 53 540 281 680 399 57 36 0
VODI 0 327 194 784 878 175 62 0
ODI 0 263 108 513 1227 559 175 0
CDI 0 324 180 718 2261 4125 1914 0
VCDI 0 194 103 465 2108 8515 48275 19897
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71604 16616 767 1245 446 115 46 0
OW 53 534 242 593 374 47 33 0
VODI 0 309 192 770 852 166 63 0
ODI 0 272 100 498 1153 547 159 0
CDI 0 314 179 730 2319 4246 1836 0
VCDI 0 200 113 489 2135 8423 48371 19897

Date: 2023-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72755 15736 710 1338 476 162 15 0
OW 58 612 268 680 409 99 20 0
VODI 0 329 171 754 974 294 81 0
ODI 0 261 108 478 1105 755 342 0
CDI 0 421 117 550 1879 4129 2706 0
VCDI 0 456 171 629 1958 11832 45844 17366
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72755 15766 755 1432 500 167 15 0
OW 58 551 202 593 419 99 19 0
VODI 0 348 183 711 897 282 75 0
ODI 0 269 106 501 1069 709 334 0
CDI 0 397 123 542 1924 4518 2621 0
VCDI 0 484 176 650 1992 11496 45944 17366

Date: 2023-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72660 16572 679 1196 423 93 26 0
OW 52 664 340 761 299 59 8 0
VODI 0 451 248 1203 1127 186 48 0
ODI 0 391 133 559 1998 991 154 0
CDI 0 1194 263 1022 2648 6684 2643 3
VCDI 0 123 65 222 519 7966 55580 6795
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72658 16138 721 1479 593 121 35 0
OW 54 541 205 608 510 120 23 0
VODI 0 403 170 773 907 323 111 0
ODI 0 454 118 498 1164 828 417 0
CDI 0 914 241 730 2171 4712 2877 6
VCDI 0 945 273 875 1669 9875 54996 6792

Date: 2023-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73374 16371 912 1548 459 96 7 0
OW 50 534 277 975 627 125 10 0
VODI 0 339 145 820 1214 605 93 0
ODI 0 228 92 477 1642 1272 423 0
CDI 0 267 133 402 1949 5843 4688 4
VCDI 0 65 72 334 818 10323 52031 7404
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73372 15628 817 1591 684 153 15 0
OW 52 515 185 672 553 150 26 0
VODI 0 467 167 662 972 502 109 0
ODI 0 347 116 542 1158 1012 584 1
CDI 0 436 168 526 2260 5081 4264 6
VCDI 0 411 178 563 1082 11366 52254 7401

Date: 2023-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73476 16799 957 1736 571 102 18 0
OW 50 524 211 944 816 254 60 0
VODI 0 385 178 720 1138 543 247 0
ODI 0 234 103 505 1450 1377 763 1
CDI 0 248 115 485 1902 5492 5181 0
VCDI 0 118 87 419 706 9598 50715 7820
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73476 15890 840 1721 836 132 26 0
OW 50 605 152 615 632 182 19 0
VODI 0 576 166 643 971 698 180 0
ODI 0 439 151 556 1018 1135 855 1
CDI 0 507 184 677 2093 4940 5530 7
VCDI 0 291 158 597 1033 10279 50374 7813


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