Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-05-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71023 15286 381 527 215 90 26 0
OW 64 382 152 348 246 75 9 0
VODI 0 187 108 462 509 241 34 0
ODI 0 54 63 292 793 586 141 0
CDI 0 146 55 300 1549 2725 1486 15
VCDI 0 122 57 374 964 8459 39700 38802
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70208 15919 433 683 253 95 33 0
OW 60 354 145 409 296 85 13 0
VODI 0 180 127 486 675 260 52 0
ODI 0 80 53 370 669 514 284 0
CDI 0 105 60 367 1584 2567 1617 5
VCDI 0 141 96 626 3048 11718 38572 33806
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70375 16508 453 550 201 63 25 0
OW 55 411 231 451 228 27 17 0
VODI 0 221 151 697 694 181 45 0
ODI 0 76 78 363 933 582 189 0
CDI 0 68 55 294 1417 3461 1738 17
VCDI 0 1 16 189 778 8450 41813 34946
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70926 16124 479 614 267 91 31 0
OW 59 393 182 507 321 63 25 0
VODI 0 289 149 558 698 262 100 0
ODI 0 126 81 323 847 532 263 0
CDI 0 96 58 344 1269 3788 1915 1
VCDI 0 20 41 245 1250 9338 42156 32217
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70926 16111 492 680 301 104 35 0
OW 59 364 166 486 330 62 23 0
VODI 0 320 148 509 684 245 89 0
ODI 0 127 78 317 804 551 250 0
CDI 0 110 70 335 1222 3503 1787 1
VCDI 0 16 36 264 1311 9609 42306 32217

Date: 2023-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70155 16752 534 748 337 88 74 0
OW 59 515 179 530 418 107 59 0
VODI 0 377 182 511 729 255 158 0
ODI 0 144 78 389 885 561 312 0
CDI 0 119 81 341 1695 3228 2175 0
VCDI 0 62 45 405 1649 10447 44736 26929
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70155 16840 561 862 441 113 87 0
OW 59 408 162 426 351 81 57 0
VODI 0 365 159 501 732 263 137 0
ODI 0 161 85 381 847 504 315 0
CDI 0 135 77 307 1549 3020 2127 0
VCDI 0 60 55 447 1793 10705 44791 26929

Date: 2023-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70981 16493 521 781 347 103 48 0
OW 55 629 290 621 327 61 35 0
VODI 0 264 216 887 848 177 59 0
ODI 0 61 79 489 1564 695 134 0
CDI 0 52 48 382 2141 4637 1545 1
VCDI 0 6 18 154 951 8611 46286 25451
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70981 16205 539 1036 601 168 97 0
OW 55 540 153 421 378 124 58 0
VODI 0 397 198 451 712 270 116 0
ODI 0 157 114 473 804 606 263 0
CDI 0 148 90 508 1679 2649 2401 3
VCDI 0 58 78 425 2004 10467 45172 25449

Date: 2023-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70548 17412 667 1151 423 128 38 0
OW 53 525 256 751 386 69 26 0
VODI 0 271 176 751 944 182 57 0
ODI 0 122 91 424 1372 612 176 0
CDI 0 141 103 545 1911 4208 1973 0
VCDI 0 43 41 295 769 6966 47745 24697
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70547 16775 587 1272 714 200 72 0
OW 54 563 161 422 445 136 46 0
VODI 0 484 182 560 685 341 159 0
ODI 0 269 146 406 727 599 488 0
CDI 0 257 150 599 1706 2248 2466 0
VCDI 0 166 108 658 1528 8641 46784 24697

Date: 2023-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72148 16234 721 1210 452 141 32 0
OW 59 600 252 657 409 87 37 0
VODI 0 336 178 708 912 284 63 0
ODI 0 224 104 445 1185 777 263 0
CDI 0 323 129 579 1930 4332 2226 3
VCDI 0 167 105 400 1128 12085 47158 17965
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72147 15423 596 1264 724 255 90 0
OW 60 660 183 457 431 199 53 0
VODI 0 542 208 543 623 443 197 0
ODI 0 390 114 387 790 738 523 0
CDI 0 455 212 623 1681 2930 2041 12
VCDI 0 414 176 725 1767 13141 46875 17956


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