Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-05-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67529 17035 505 747 463 178 50 0
OW 59 277 111 331 339 169 34 0
VODI 0 199 70 255 416 297 139 0
ODI 0 121 34 131 385 445 229 0
CDI 0 112 31 183 641 1363 1089 0
VCDI 0 102 65 287 1207 7385 34110 49925
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67890 16872 496 686 461 279 43 0
OW 74 324 128 291 304 188 59 0
VODI 0 200 82 220 346 329 160 0
ODI 0 103 36 108 332 414 263 0
CDI 0 104 40 191 560 1410 1300 9
VCDI 0 101 52 247 1225 6502 36085 48534
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67389 17676 449 708 414 182 49 0
OW 94 224 113 283 258 101 29 0
VODI 3 123 71 247 434 214 56 0
ODI 0 59 37 231 479 407 138 0
CDI 0 47 35 302 1139 2919 1322 10
VCDI 0 263 38 286 990 5713 35310 48206
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67915 16851 521 872 503 170 43 0
OW 82 153 87 311 302 159 21 0
VODI 4 90 47 244 443 299 93 0
ODI 0 66 57 299 539 525 181 0
CDI 0 52 25 227 1179 3025 1407 5
VCDI 0 50 55 242 803 7333 40188 41580
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67916 16890 534 902 518 177 46 0
OW 80 124 69 293 312 155 23 0
VODI 5 87 52 243 428 289 92 0
ODI 0 59 56 275 530 527 197 0
CDI 0 51 26 243 1125 2855 1451 6
VCDI 0 51 55 239 856 7508 40124 41579

Date: 2023-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67925 16878 544 900 414 161 39 0
OW 77 129 110 358 362 126 17 0
VODI 0 72 50 322 518 329 85 0
ODI 0 41 27 237 594 573 223 0
CDI 0 48 25 187 1160 2978 1939 1
VCDI 0 68 47 184 836 7188 37903 43373
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67926 16890 564 971 445 170 40 0
OW 76 119 91 293 344 123 21 0
VODI 0 76 47 300 496 314 93 0
ODI 0 40 29 258 590 596 227 0
CDI 0 43 25 179 1118 2982 1984 4
VCDI 0 68 47 187 891 7170 37841 43370

Date: 2023-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68847 16616 444 627 249 56 6 0
OW 71 274 178 390 260 45 0 0
VODI 0 86 112 536 625 159 6 0
ODI 0 47 48 257 1070 570 49 0
CDI 0 86 62 233 1327 4047 1065 4
VCDI 0 33 20 194 657 5986 43070 38636
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68847 16599 504 780 397 87 7 0
OW 71 188 112 332 310 114 8 0
VODI 0 96 80 342 563 235 62 0
ODI 0 65 41 261 652 584 171 0
CDI 0 89 51 215 1179 2457 1833 1
VCDI 0 105 76 307 1087 7386 42115 38639

Date: 2023-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70418 15600 411 558 223 114 23 0
OW 68 275 169 401 218 53 11 0
VODI 0 102 113 465 566 165 45 0
ODI 0 34 40 277 860 594 90 0
CDI 0 71 48 239 1448 3196 1684 14
VCDI 0 44 53 274 799 6831 42064 38390
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70418 15526 421 595 314 148 43 0
OW 68 223 126 347 228 79 47 0
VODI 0 130 96 365 434 192 93 0
ODI 0 67 45 305 661 603 191 0
CDI 0 79 58 230 1326 2140 2335 4
VCDI 0 101 88 372 1151 7791 41208 38400

Date: 2023-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71023 15286 381 527 215 90 26 0
OW 64 382 152 348 246 75 9 0
VODI 0 187 108 462 509 241 34 0
ODI 0 54 63 292 793 586 141 0
CDI 0 146 55 300 1549 2725 1486 15
VCDI 0 122 57 374 964 8459 39700 38802
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71023 15254 405 568 307 145 42 0
OW 64 304 103 254 234 104 35 0
VODI 0 193 96 385 397 274 53 0
ODI 0 119 52 316 603 573 239 0
CDI 0 132 58 325 1560 2424 2143 8
VCDI 0 175 102 455 1175 8656 38884 38809


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