Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-04-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60725 20130 3811 1021 252 81 38 0
OW 51 301 189 329 300 101 27 0
VODI 0 168 99 280 357 213 103 0
ODI 0 54 64 225 323 364 208 0
CDI 0 37 37 200 582 1049 888 7
VCDI 0 14 27 207 1319 6361 32057 54449
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60355 21378 2705 1063 389 93 60 0
OW 51 223 177 376 309 152 37 0
VODI 0 127 137 257 318 300 106 0
ODI 0 46 53 230 316 427 225 0
CDI 0 35 37 239 622 1469 1191 4
VCDI 0 16 53 278 1103 6830 35885 49376
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67622 16583 535 880 480 189 73 0
OW 59 227 80 294 363 158 34 0
VODI 0 163 64 256 358 318 137 0
ODI 0 87 54 152 385 451 281 0
CDI 0 80 41 241 605 1254 1336 4
VCDI 0 30 56 264 1239 7144 34618 49853
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67344 17000 518 821 490 197 62 0
OW 59 242 109 322 350 149 23 0
VODI 0 193 52 274 430 310 120 0
ODI 0 104 52 142 358 480 253 0
CDI 0 110 37 183 583 1496 1203 4
VCDI 0 111 61 292 1070 7020 35472 48952
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67344 17035 539 866 538 211 64 0
OW 59 236 101 278 316 139 28 0
VODI 0 178 50 286 402 325 117 0
ODI 0 105 39 133 380 475 263 1
CDI 0 108 35 191 625 1522 1188 3
VCDI 0 98 65 280 1020 6980 35473 48952

Date: 2023-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68038 16727 481 679 445 233 68 0
OW 74 282 125 325 302 185 58 0
VODI 0 201 81 222 391 284 159 0
ODI 0 111 32 100 365 384 267 0
CDI 0 106 30 196 611 1272 1239 0
VCDI 0 113 50 272 1409 6754 35289 49088
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68038 16781 497 701 490 253 67 0
OW 74 263 114 295 280 170 61 0
VODI 0 180 82 236 368 283 166 0
ODI 0 111 26 106 378 392 276 0
CDI 0 101 29 209 703 1344 1260 0
VCDI 0 104 51 247 1304 6670 35250 49088

Date: 2023-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67882 17287 424 552 336 165 32 0
OW 73 344 145 292 252 99 26 0
VODI 0 170 85 276 354 200 56 0
ODI 0 84 33 216 534 372 99 0
CDI 0 52 33 259 1116 3225 1205 7
VCDI 0 185 24 185 666 5097 34763 49843
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67882 17037 437 672 555 293 67 0
OW 73 337 116 208 242 192 90 0
VODI 0 208 68 204 326 299 196 0
ODI 0 119 34 124 300 408 320 0
CDI 0 108 31 235 648 1577 1380 10
VCDI 0 313 58 337 1187 6389 34128 49840

Date: 2023-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67935 17100 481 701 487 158 32 0
OW 91 209 109 267 282 87 30 0
VODI 6 109 61 252 437 259 59 0
ODI 0 63 41 282 546 467 148 0
CDI 0 77 47 287 1167 2881 1215 12
VCDI 0 88 45 219 1049 7207 36564 45491
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67907 16822 464 773 638 237 74 0
OW 82 275 89 243 280 192 91 0
VODI 17 174 55 188 457 356 197 0
ODI 20 79 60 209 434 409 271 0
CDI 6 93 47 297 796 1656 972 11
VCDI 0 203 69 298 1363 8209 36443 45492

Date: 2023-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67915 16793 532 867 524 183 45 0
OW 84 139 98 327 342 141 25 0
VODI 0 87 37 271 464 330 109 0
ODI 0 55 46 252 560 474 275 0
CDI 0 44 32 225 1279 3125 1696 2
VCDI 0 53 27 235 826 7178 38968 42383
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67867 16578 483 905 673 275 98 0
OW 93 222 95 248 320 235 124 0
VODI 15 121 80 307 466 393 282 0
ODI 23 62 25 221 390 430 340 10
CDI 1 54 21 174 875 1758 1432 109
VCDI 0 134 68 322 1271 8340 38842 42266


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