Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-03-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57701 22833 3230 674 247 88 13 0
OW 54 322 176 348 245 127 13 0
VODI 0 187 101 261 311 232 43 0
ODI 0 79 46 132 315 304 111 0
CDI 0 35 26 95 405 552 378 34
VCDI 0 4 25 76 707 4664 33868 57986
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60305 20864 2500 610 262 143 15 0
OW 56 336 181 312 230 133 32 0
VODI 0 158 93 278 302 227 92 0
ODI 0 68 35 129 269 328 161 0
CDI 0 34 21 94 373 762 675 6
VCDI 0 2 4 63 534 4697 38167 53497
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59306 19661 4539 649 297 110 23 0
OW 62 225 219 364 235 100 25 0
VODI 0 103 80 282 384 214 75 0
ODI 0 21 17 121 281 354 130 0
CDI 0 13 5 52 305 914 680 33
VCDI 0 0 0 28 544 4006 37829 54762
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59425 20198 3774 673 347 147 44 0
OW 62 228 270 300 214 119 36 0
VODI 0 112 103 287 280 249 110 0
ODI 0 32 15 146 251 287 191 0
CDI 0 13 3 61 336 789 622 53
VCDI 0 6 3 33 431 3742 31069 61987
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59425 20257 3800 693 345 149 45 0
OW 62 191 240 287 212 116 30 0
VODI 0 96 99 281 294 265 125 0
ODI 0 28 24 133 258 295 194 0
CDI 0 11 2 75 323 771 601 73
VCDI 0 6 3 31 427 3737 31077 61967

Date: 2023-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60922 19245 3404 764 319 107 46 0
OW 62 243 224 343 184 101 39 0
VODI 0 142 125 266 276 186 137 0
ODI 0 38 43 165 284 318 212 0
CDI 0 7 7 110 371 643 624 16
VCDI 0 0 0 20 614 3189 27780 65472
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60922 19288 3440 776 320 99 49 0
OW 62 221 182 327 169 111 31 0
VODI 0 129 128 267 300 186 149 0
ODI 0 32 47 170 275 312 231 1
CDI 0 5 6 110 384 651 617 16
VCDI 0 0 0 18 600 3185 27761 65471

Date: 2023-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56251 23101 4245 745 196 63 5 0
OW 53 254 335 366 185 72 9 0
VODI 0 108 164 357 322 187 38 0
ODI 0 24 50 194 313 305 102 0
CDI 0 9 6 77 370 754 551 6
VCDI 0 0 0 35 432 3480 33010 60274
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56251 23079 4307 922 309 110 18 0
OW 53 240 246 281 186 118 68 0
VODI 0 140 155 243 289 215 133 0
ODI 0 27 73 157 219 296 207 0
CDI 0 10 19 120 316 639 482 11
VCDI 0 0 0 51 499 3483 32807 60269

Date: 2023-04-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55065 22725 6201 638 204 102 25 0
OW 53 163 364 302 184 85 12 0
VODI 0 67 186 300 268 176 43 0
ODI 0 25 79 171 259 249 115 0
CDI 0 11 32 125 284 434 471 10
VCDI 0 5 41 109 596 3617 25504 67748
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55065 22678 6147 721 279 149 43 0
OW 53 176 353 255 163 114 77 0
VODI 0 81 215 243 251 216 150 0
ODI 0 36 95 152 218 219 214 2
CDI 0 19 47 142 280 374 454 6
VCDI 0 6 46 132 604 3591 25232 67750

Date: 2023-04-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60393 21051 2498 708 240 70 24 0
OW 52 199 271 328 189 98 35 0
VODI 0 80 190 299 306 180 91 0
ODI 0 33 79 162 279 231 164 0
CDI 0 33 25 137 320 522 465 19
VCDI 0 26 45 157 648 4251 28502 63648
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60393 20930 2454 802 316 106 59 0
OW 52 259 266 243 218 125 100 0
VODI 0 102 183 250 261 208 191 0
ODI 0 39 99 130 231 229 215 2
CDI 0 53 42 157 292 474 348 14
VCDI 0 39 64 209 664 4210 28368 63651


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