Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-03-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61025 21109 1914 670 236 87 39 0
OW 52 406 226 344 184 102 14 0
VODI 0 166 112 300 375 191 29 0
ODI 0 98 34 158 352 325 92 14
CDI 0 62 31 102 289 964 563 122
VCDI 0 58 41 135 682 4464 35866 55015
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56945 24657 2420 620 220 83 44 0
OW 52 345 255 359 179 85 19 0
VODI 0 164 91 354 311 176 44 0
ODI 0 96 41 138 338 333 107 2
CDI 0 32 31 75 296 855 520 43
VCDI 0 24 28 116 472 3441 40962 51675
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55068 24640 4524 641 199 55 13 0
OW 54 196 236 379 235 58 12 0
VODI 0 174 114 280 346 202 45 0
ODI 0 75 47 151 333 290 68 0
CDI 0 46 36 79 344 708 365 25
VCDI 0 29 25 143 486 4116 38714 53497
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57519 22367 3970 712 225 61 13 0
OW 54 306 177 340 297 95 9 0
VODI 0 210 96 224 344 231 29 2
ODI 0 72 58 131 282 299 162 4
CDI 0 38 28 105 304 603 527 19
VCDI 0 9 26 107 386 3943 36681 55983
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57519 22368 3980 714 277 67 14 0
OW 54 317 162 329 257 88 8 0
VODI 0 203 98 227 331 229 31 0
ODI 0 61 56 126 272 294 159 5
CDI 0 36 31 110 312 613 531 20
VCDI 0 17 28 113 389 3941 36678 55983

Date: 2023-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59565 22004 2175 618 254 124 27 0
OW 55 292 190 371 217 135 27 0
VODI 0 177 90 250 317 216 75 0
ODI 0 78 38 121 262 323 126 0
CDI 0 32 24 94 345 637 494 1
VCDI 0 10 13 65 657 4687 39288 52574
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59564 22023 2179 631 287 140 29 0
OW 56 287 179 347 195 130 28 0
VODI 0 176 96 251 307 202 76 0
ODI 0 54 38 121 258 329 135 0
CDI 0 41 22 97 334 638 486 1
VCDI 0 12 16 72 671 4683 39283 52574

Date: 2023-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59514 22143 1948 568 255 105 11 0
OW 62 276 193 388 219 105 14 0
VODI 0 122 86 318 386 207 60 0
ODI 0 31 16 112 375 422 129 0
CDI 0 15 10 59 397 1020 663 14
VCDI 0 0 0 25 425 3968 40115 52272
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59514 22083 1938 678 362 174 26 0
OW 62 284 165 265 210 146 34 0
VODI 0 141 97 258 307 263 110 0
ODI 0 43 32 132 273 345 189 0
CDI 0 35 20 90 396 850 683 2
VCDI 0 1 1 47 509 4049 39950 52284

Date: 2023-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60717 20285 2468 656 320 145 36 0
OW 62 208 253 317 212 109 45 0
VODI 0 100 87 269 351 215 97 0
ODI 0 28 11 115 270 320 152 0
CDI 0 18 5 72 342 794 614 64
VCDI 0 3 2 53 479 4002 33553 59199
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60717 20212 2390 675 404 208 65 0
OW 62 233 230 254 198 124 76 0
VODI 0 102 140 222 300 252 140 0
ODI 0 35 48 149 233 270 200 0
CDI 0 59 18 113 354 752 636 76
VCDI 0 1 0 69 485 3979 33380 59187

Date: 2023-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58483 21661 3403 691 315 94 30 0
OW 62 207 236 377 204 94 27 0
VODI 0 114 124 253 330 186 117 0
ODI 0 39 27 154 337 259 213 0
CDI 0 10 3 75 440 706 621 4
VCDI 0 2 0 19 531 3077 28687 64836
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58483 21530 3259 681 376 114 37 0
OW 62 270 263 287 188 121 58 0
VODI 0 125 160 253 295 189 134 0
ODI 0 64 55 148 294 268 241 0
CDI 0 32 46 133 419 668 895 97
VCDI 0 12 10 67 585 3056 28330 64743


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