Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-09-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18419 6493 639 425 156 20 2 0
OW 2 531 267 463 184 11 0 0
VODI 0 25 76 624 496 95 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 149 639 236 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 210 1255 152 0
VCDI 0 5 1 3 49 2844 10540 849
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18078 5857 423 593 108 19 0 0
OW 1 597 255 458 357 105 0 0
VODI 0 39 62 421 675 136 1 0
ODI 0 3 0 119 709 269 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 218 989 100 0
VCDI 0 3 2 4 42 5050 10145 13
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17940 6031 473 464 308 44 0 0
OW 0 69 97 258 293 81 3 0
VODI 0 50 53 260 542 223 6 0
ODI 0 1 0 29 639 483 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 97 1048 375 0
VCDI 0 2 0 3 20 4490 10877 599
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17349 6185 378 380 204 71 0 0
OW 4 277 135 343 288 72 0 0
VODI 0 33 60 247 579 214 2 0
ODI 0 1 3 54 564 327 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 410 747 382 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 129 5467 10823 98
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17353 6178 419 419 235 68 0 0
OW 0 260 90 255 283 97 0 0
VODI 0 56 63 313 570 264 3 0
ODI 0 2 4 37 538 282 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 390 620 278 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 158 5567 10932 98

Date: 2022-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16842 6217 365 427 220 2 0 0
OW 9 416 182 404 321 22 0 0
VODI 0 52 63 337 569 108 7 0
ODI 0 6 10 101 586 288 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 201 952 69 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 78 5025 11917 26
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16849 6200 420 520 203 7 0 0
OW 2 376 105 269 351 35 0 0
VODI 0 108 81 419 657 115 12 0
ODI 0 7 13 54 451 294 23 0
CDI 0 0 1 26 192 747 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 121 5199 11921 26

Date: 2022-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14621 8409 535 433 60 7 0 0
OW 1 113 109 312 148 5 0 0
VODI 0 26 49 282 514 31 10 0
ODI 0 2 10 37 938 279 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 236 1355 115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 37 3484 13101 553
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14612 8035 497 441 106 0 0 0
OW 10 350 88 278 459 23 0 0
VODI 0 150 70 218 666 220 0 0
ODI 0 11 31 88 379 382 7 0
CDI 0 4 9 27 212 752 66 0
VCDI 0 0 8 33 111 3784 13186 553

Date: 2022-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13415 8588 1044 583 151 3 0 0
OW 20 131 107 322 268 20 0 0
VODI 0 25 38 190 536 127 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 49 513 453 2 0
CDI 0 1 0 21 416 1089 68 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 56 4195 11607 1816
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13425 8205 912 518 212 22 0 0
OW 10 449 162 241 319 106 0 0
VODI 0 88 109 266 530 239 0 0
ODI 0 3 9 94 555 393 3 0
CDI 0 1 0 18 235 778 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 89 4349 11640 1816

Date: 2022-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15861 7264 267 155 64 14 0 0
OW 75 413 213 299 77 0 0 0
VODI 0 75 121 482 276 10 0 0
ODI 0 3 21 341 475 80 1 0
CDI 0 0 6 150 708 504 64 0
VCDI 0 0 2 77 956 6164 9338 1310
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15935 6674 199 162 66 14 0 0
OW 1 683 184 336 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 333 162 484 324 13 0 0
ODI 0 57 49 237 506 192 6 0
CDI 0 8 21 135 582 336 48 0
VCDI 0 0 15 150 1005 6217 9349 1310


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