Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-05-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 15 15 26 1 0 0 0
OW 0 21 26 116 120 41 1 0
VODI 0 26 24 250 281 185 108 0
ODI 0 40 48 236 277 205 162 0
CDI 0 72 123 362 601 578 1176 56
VCDI 0 185 155 405 720 3258 13591 22360
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 47 27 30 6 6 1 0
OW 0 45 48 135 175 77 18 0
VODI 0 27 44 280 404 237 78 0
ODI 0 48 55 231 364 200 126 0
CDI 0 126 120 334 549 573 825 8
VCDI 0 156 169 471 721 2358 15626 21121
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 77 16 19 4 1 0 0
OW 0 71 98 200 58 15 8 0
VODI 0 56 41 355 568 171 6 0
ODI 0 83 30 250 554 348 67 0
CDI 0 122 97 366 737 948 586 0
VCDI 0 78 135 246 502 2655 19844 16454
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 137 72 48 7 0 2 0
OW 0 128 137 278 136 30 8 0
VODI 0 54 42 281 577 177 32 0
ODI 0 87 22 166 389 233 123 0
CDI 0 105 83 308 697 769 571 5
VCDI 0 113 129 321 572 3480 23335 12212
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 135 75 102 78 12 3 0
OW 0 115 123 218 211 45 9 0
VODI 0 74 53 248 381 153 58 0
ODI 0 87 20 187 412 212 135 0
CDI 0 106 86 295 661 680 547 1
VCDI 0 107 128 352 635 3587 23319 12216

Date: 2022-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 231 102 123 26 10 4 0
OW 0 89 120 303 263 48 7 0
VODI 0 55 41 220 503 195 53 0
ODI 0 67 18 141 404 233 108 0
CDI 0 103 75 171 680 923 597 16
VCDI 0 93 155 376 479 3509 25436 9889
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 233 109 206 164 60 8 0
OW 0 83 99 175 206 53 21 0
VODI 0 60 60 229 398 138 71 0
ODI 0 61 12 162 413 247 103 0
CDI 0 108 52 165 640 877 624 5
VCDI 0 93 179 397 534 3543 25378 9900

Date: 2022-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 195 127 150 24 5 3 0
OW 0 82 94 294 151 7 2 0
VODI 0 81 54 468 674 81 2 0
ODI 0 63 29 215 788 507 36 0
CDI 0 66 82 245 595 1312 557 2
VCDI 0 40 81 261 383 3848 26252 8010
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 163 152 334 278 98 5 0
OW 0 68 73 242 267 77 2 0
VODI 0 59 24 279 401 172 14 0
ODI 0 53 18 139 398 243 54 0
CDI 0 120 73 250 779 1102 634 2
VCDI 0 64 127 389 492 4068 26143 8010

Date: 2022-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 200 160 249 95 5 1 0
OW 0 140 117 414 363 21 0 0
VODI 0 71 69 435 867 185 2 0
ODI 0 48 28 209 572 299 27 0
CDI 0 89 99 335 1062 1207 355 18
VCDI 0 30 55 228 1635 5648 26811 3717
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 174 160 371 444 103 1 0
OW 0 74 101 313 344 50 3 0
VODI 0 69 24 289 463 131 5 0
ODI 0 59 52 232 469 212 29 1
CDI 0 153 97 350 966 1168 416 10
VCDI 0 49 94 315 1908 5701 26742 3724

Date: 2022-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 398 204 508 185 8 1 0
OW 0 139 93 500 625 102 2 0
VODI 0 78 54 334 475 212 20 0
ODI 0 52 31 155 405 286 73 0
CDI 0 118 121 296 1150 1534 683 18
VCDI 0 42 56 222 635 8767 23201 4083
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 283 203 534 478 75 1 0
OW 0 107 54 376 336 93 3 0
VODI 0 108 36 248 338 151 25 0
ODI 0 78 50 238 390 334 122 2
CDI 0 195 137 392 976 1690 1111 14
VCDI 0 56 79 227 957 8566 22718 4085


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