Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-01-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66853 18811 2340 552 348 382 119 0
OW 86 246 327 278 111 39 27 0
VODI 0 182 225 328 332 79 31 0
ODI 0 65 134 318 489 209 42 0
CDI 0 38 98 315 461 543 239 5
VCDI 0 19 115 337 689 3325 27852 60059
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55800 26167 5444 697 252 411 168 0
OW 62 301 382 302 106 23 32 0
VODI 0 142 215 424 204 48 38 0
ODI 0 103 121 249 365 119 47 0
CDI 0 27 81 296 594 658 234 2
VCDI 0 21 137 466 1020 3617 28354 59319
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55088 24617 7838 706 299 319 178 0
OW 66 345 230 266 136 20 60 0
VODI 0 182 193 321 261 36 34 0
ODI 0 68 113 214 356 90 42 0
CDI 0 25 108 249 580 518 245 17
VCDI 0 9 66 419 1276 4350 33692 53416
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58054 23638 4747 1123 354 214 139 0
OW 63 430 243 233 181 52 53 0
VODI 0 260 223 244 220 116 39 0
ODI 0 70 166 204 252 172 46 0
CDI 0 18 124 245 498 506 228 0
VCDI 0 9 38 276 1336 4978 32873 54383
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58054 23669 4735 1148 359 223 145 0
OW 63 379 262 208 172 38 47 0
VODI 0 277 198 242 218 115 35 0
ODI 0 73 170 202 234 170 44 0
CDI 0 18 139 236 497 484 232 0
VCDI 0 9 37 289 1361 5008 32875 54383

Date: 2022-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58229 24098 4473 581 253 67 148 0
OW 63 534 204 255 151 62 36 0
VODI 0 331 166 248 221 118 46 0
ODI 0 140 142 179 202 168 72 0
CDI 0 77 98 249 328 480 265 0
VCDI 0 3 47 257 836 4926 37682 50613
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58229 24108 4465 578 256 78 149 0
OW 63 512 205 252 144 54 32 0
VODI 0 294 156 237 206 105 46 0
ODI 0 169 143 173 200 156 68 0
CDI 0 95 98 236 330 486 278 0
VCDI 0 5 63 293 855 4942 37676 50613

Date: 2022-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60907 22430 3802 563 214 50 93 0
OW 74 316 325 374 148 44 20 0
VODI 0 118 219 384 284 115 14 0
ODI 0 36 121 219 339 178 56 0
CDI 0 5 40 151 425 523 330 11
VCDI 0 0 5 102 720 5118 34589 53586
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60905 21876 3640 548 225 67 118 0
OW 76 534 274 246 143 66 12 0
VODI 0 341 202 291 221 131 26 0
ODI 0 110 167 241 236 145 112 0
CDI 0 41 176 254 355 388 311 4
VCDI 0 3 53 213 950 5231 34523 53593

Date: 2022-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53796 29186 4208 464 119 35 141 0
OW 63 657 250 301 114 12 12 0
VODI 0 261 251 341 274 53 12 0
ODI 0 94 125 264 261 167 33 0
CDI 0 27 46 213 361 373 252 0
VCDI 0 0 17 144 773 4831 32541 55976
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53795 28689 4112 416 128 48 159 0
OW 64 526 249 188 115 20 13 0
VODI 0 555 195 319 179 82 18 0
ODI 0 268 147 238 260 140 49 0
CDI 0 146 126 270 295 357 183 4
VCDI 0 41 68 296 925 4824 32569 55972

Date: 2022-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57564 24063 4805 475 150 86 196 0
OW 63 477 295 310 92 11 21 0
VODI 0 278 296 503 318 56 35 0
ODI 0 107 135 287 378 108 49 0
CDI 0 44 78 283 460 319 285 0
VCDI 0 20 61 320 1009 5217 29706 58088
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57576 23677 4751 477 181 96 221 0
OW 51 552 213 182 67 15 22 0
VODI 0 414 219 306 155 58 48 0
ODI 0 188 203 319 316 84 37 0
CDI 0 97 154 339 528 207 138 31
VCDI 0 61 130 555 1160 5337 29826 58057


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