Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2023-11-16
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2023-11-10:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
16930 |
7264 |
580 |
380 |
179 |
160 |
95 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
127 |
137 |
153 |
80 |
67 |
63 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
57 |
81 |
147 |
93 |
111 |
101 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
8 |
18 |
73 |
50 |
141 |
86 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
4 |
42 |
81 |
196 |
327 |
6 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
52 |
402 |
6119 |
3740 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-11-14:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
16226 |
7200 |
672 |
310 |
205 |
204 |
87 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
65 |
102 |
111 |
121 |
64 |
22 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
22 |
53 |
127 |
183 |
173 |
49 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
5 |
10 |
37 |
74 |
234 |
152 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
3 |
1 |
22 |
40 |
192 |
396 |
12 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
16 |
501 |
5060 |
5403 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-11-16:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
15825 |
6962 |
789 |
348 |
202 |
191 |
105 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
91 |
117 |
67 |
115 |
43 |
29 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
36 |
128 |
70 |
115 |
105 |
38 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
3 |
87 |
79 |
105 |
107 |
91 |
2 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
49 |
90 |
92 |
177 |
306 |
31 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
25 |
57 |
328 |
6427 |
4725 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
15825 |
6924 |
785 |
356 |
228 |
195 |
121 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
126 |
118 |
60 |
96 |
47 |
22 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
39 |
139 |
81 |
122 |
104 |
35 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
3 |
93 |
82 |
97 |
126 |
90 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
31 |
73 |
91 |
148 |
276 |
27 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
6 |
27 |
52 |
331 |
6452 |
4730 |
|
Date: 2023-11-20:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
15317 |
5980 |
1182 |
905 |
310 |
84 |
99 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
7 |
56 |
216 |
121 |
61 |
20 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
19 |
152 |
146 |
160 |
57 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
65 |
93 |
153 |
115 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
23 |
76 |
267 |
373 |
2 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
10 |
30 |
517 |
5580 |
5957 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
15317 |
5973 |
1129 |
813 |
313 |
146 |
125 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
13 |
86 |
217 |
92 |
62 |
28 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
1 |
36 |
187 |
140 |
128 |
61 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
8 |
99 |
92 |
118 |
104 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
24 |
79 |
225 |
293 |
2 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
31 |
60 |
563 |
5633 |
5957 |
|
Date: 2023-11-22:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
15477 |
5967 |
1582 |
431 |
279 |
161 |
85 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
9 |
157 |
140 |
124 |
90 |
20 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
3 |
73 |
93 |
110 |
185 |
51 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
1 |
30 |
38 |
87 |
150 |
112 |
7 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
21 |
31 |
45 |
225 |
246 |
58 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
18 |
27 |
43 |
365 |
6000 |
5618 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
15477 |
5916 |
1415 |
380 |
280 |
215 |
113 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
50 |
173 |
106 |
75 |
84 |
28 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
11 |
145 |
129 |
116 |
130 |
51 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
2 |
59 |
53 |
72 |
145 |
80 |
8 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
36 |
31 |
69 |
226 |
191 |
61 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
53 |
61 |
76 |
376 |
6051 |
5614 |
|
Date: 2023-11-24:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
15528 |
5945 |
1502 |
359 |
212 |
179 |
93 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
69 |
300 |
150 |
75 |
30 |
28 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
6 |
153 |
171 |
143 |
83 |
32 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
81 |
94 |
114 |
129 |
64 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
61 |
75 |
103 |
249 |
137 |
31 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
84 |
134 |
254 |
705 |
5901 |
4885 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
15528 |
5850 |
1415 |
345 |
211 |
209 |
132 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
107 |
239 |
112 |
66 |
53 |
29 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
55 |
196 |
158 |
119 |
69 |
40 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
7 |
96 |
98 |
108 |
104 |
46 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
98 |
94 |
111 |
238 |
160 |
20 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
137 |
176 |
286 |
702 |
5848 |
4896 |
|
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