Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2023-09-21
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2023-09-15:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
23201 |
5606 |
1088 |
738 |
256 |
50 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
6 |
71 |
165 |
149 |
52 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
5 |
23 |
94 |
288 |
165 |
13 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
69 |
254 |
626 |
547 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
37 |
121 |
1361 |
616 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
8 |
19 |
909 |
1607 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-09-19:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
23823 |
5114 |
855 |
829 |
175 |
23 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1 |
24 |
188 |
58 |
26 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
18 |
183 |
162 |
52 |
8 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
4 |
113 |
308 |
235 |
54 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
21 |
166 |
577 |
1630 |
647 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
16 |
10 |
1359 |
1476 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-09-21:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
23183 |
5494 |
1023 |
707 |
209 |
62 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
0 |
33 |
138 |
88 |
51 |
3 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
18 |
113 |
183 |
116 |
7 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
39 |
159 |
347 |
62 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
116 |
656 |
1562 |
368 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
27 |
13 |
1550 |
1811 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
23183 |
5494 |
1029 |
761 |
232 |
70 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
0 |
27 |
96 |
87 |
53 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
18 |
99 |
183 |
136 |
9 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
41 |
143 |
316 |
68 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
108 |
654 |
1477 |
356 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
29 |
16 |
1628 |
1823 |
|
Date: 2023-09-25:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
22950 |
5259 |
1516 |
437 |
189 |
91 |
4 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
2 |
58 |
83 |
69 |
48 |
5 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
44 |
94 |
155 |
117 |
15 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
8 |
41 |
178 |
299 |
35 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
97 |
423 |
431 |
56 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
100 |
2647 |
2689 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
22950 |
5260 |
1485 |
462 |
223 |
122 |
9 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1 |
59 |
72 |
88 |
63 |
6 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
49 |
65 |
145 |
140 |
30 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
32 |
39 |
95 |
238 |
52 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
25 |
130 |
462 |
1344 |
138 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18 |
53 |
1696 |
2607 |
|
Date: 2023-09-27:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
23305 |
5025 |
1105 |
651 |
148 |
62 |
4 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
4 |
32 |
137 |
59 |
30 |
4 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
22 |
154 |
129 |
58 |
20 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
8 |
44 |
185 |
142 |
43 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
141 |
335 |
337 |
1 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
131 |
2436 |
3355 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
23305 |
5025 |
1077 |
648 |
160 |
72 |
7 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
4 |
41 |
138 |
72 |
33 |
10 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
29 |
142 |
139 |
72 |
35 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
17 |
44 |
125 |
144 |
46 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
26 |
143 |
328 |
729 |
87 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
63 |
109 |
2017 |
3269 |
|
Date: 2023-09-29:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
23787 |
4776 |
855 |
566 |
136 |
31 |
3 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
33 |
56 |
152 |
55 |
13 |
5 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
6 |
26 |
147 |
98 |
45 |
12 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
3 |
18 |
64 |
137 |
89 |
39 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
8 |
23 |
136 |
226 |
180 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
78 |
237 |
2465 |
3648 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
23787 |
4780 |
837 |
543 |
149 |
33 |
5 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
25 |
41 |
133 |
58 |
25 |
9 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
9 |
46 |
132 |
105 |
62 |
14 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
4 |
26 |
91 |
123 |
102 |
34 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
13 |
52 |
132 |
194 |
295 |
53 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
73 |
225 |
2347 |
3595 |
|
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