Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2023-07-27

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19707 6322 1325 891 300 78 70 0
OW 0 1 57 162 149 60 24 0
VODI 0 0 25 227 375 184 68 0
ODI 0 0 5 62 207 263 264 0
CDI 0 0 1 62 94 386 2530 1927
VCDI 0 0 0 10 16 55 1226 1026
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19525 6221 1515 983 389 74 42 0
OW 0 0 20 171 190 91 17 0
VODI 0 0 20 168 385 287 85 0
ODI 0 0 20 68 215 271 396 52
CDI 0 0 3 19 113 226 2518 2870
VCDI 0 0 0 4 19 20 315 847
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19613 6207 1495 884 453 86 48 0
OW 0 0 26 176 246 128 20 0
VODI 0 0 11 145 369 295 103 0
ODI 0 0 18 53 196 304 372 72
CDI 0 0 2 19 69 179 2246 2553
VCDI 0 0 0 8 19 30 549 1165
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19613 6205 1494 910 483 119 54 0
OW 0 2 24 161 224 110 23 0
VODI 0 0 12 128 363 284 109 0
ODI 0 0 20 57 196 289 340 58
CDI 0 0 2 20 66 190 2239 2565
VCDI 0 0 0 9 20 30 573 1167

Date: 2023-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19575 6279 1839 929 238 66 25 0
OW 0 0 21 224 176 49 8 0
VODI 0 0 6 281 408 205 62 0
ODI 0 0 0 81 248 354 208 18
CDI 0 0 0 12 32 179 1601 1559
VCDI 0 0 0 7 3 4 1139 2323
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19575 6278 1809 945 290 89 28 0
OW 0 1 43 288 310 101 21 0
VODI 0 0 12 186 253 244 95 0
ODI 0 0 2 88 187 264 388 230
CDI 0 0 0 20 62 156 2147 2460
VCDI 0 0 0 7 3 3 364 1210

Date: 2023-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19803 6493 1575 852 340 78 29 0
OW 0 0 13 208 231 73 17 0
VODI 0 0 7 204 375 270 110 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 177 243 243 12
CDI 0 0 0 15 40 137 1862 1731
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 839 2134
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19803 6492 1536 846 407 100 37 0
OW 0 1 38 234 290 137 37 0
VODI 0 0 21 147 243 231 140 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 167 203 519 255
CDI 0 0 0 23 56 130 2106 2624
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 261 998

Date: 2023-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19905 6757 1380 823 332 74 19 0
OW 0 9 35 209 236 79 22 0
VODI 0 0 20 213 368 234 107 0
ODI 0 0 0 59 146 194 248 13
CDI 0 0 0 22 52 129 2111 1755
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 12 596 2000
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19905 6722 1300 858 444 112 28 0
OW 0 25 88 206 245 128 35 0
VODI 0 17 35 140 235 195 138 0
ODI 0 2 12 94 146 155 591 316
CDI 0 0 0 28 64 123 2095 2590
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 9 216 862


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